New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 2: New Methods for Assessing Extreme Temperatures, Heavy Downpours, and Drought

González, Jorge E.; Ortiz, Luis; Smith, Brianne; Devineni, Naresh; Colle, Brian A.; Booth, James F.; Ravindranath, Arun; Rivera, Luis; Horton, Radley M.; Towey, Katherine L.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Manley, Danielle; Bader, Daniel A.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

doi:10.1111/nyas.14007

Cited by 35 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 145 publications

(180 reference statements)

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“…According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report [1], the risk of heatwaves will increase during the twenty-first century, requiring adaptation measures to reduce impacts on health and comfort, particularly in vulnerable populations like the elderly and low-income communities [2,3]. The 2020 New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) also reported that summer heat waves are expected to become more frequent, longer, and more intense in New York City (NYC), the largest city in the US [4]. The Urban Heat Island (UHI) has been shown to further exacerbate this problem in cities, which tend to have higher ambient temperatures than the surrounding regions [5,6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapting to Extreme Heat: Social, Atmospheric, and Infrastructure Impacts of Air-Conditioning in Megacities—The Case of New York City

Gamarro

Ortiz

González

2020

ASME Journal of Engineering for Sustainable Buildings and Cities

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Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and intense. In cities, this problem is often intensified by the presence of the urban heat island (UHI). This presents major challenges to reduce adverse health effects of hot weather, particularly in vulnerable populations. Here we explore the impacts of increasing residential air conditioning (AC) adoption as an adaptive measure to extreme heat, with New York City (NYC) as a case study. This study uses AC adoption data from New York City Housing and Vacancy Surveys to study impacts to indoor heat exposure, energy demand, and UHI. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, coupled with a multi-layer building environment parameterization and building energy model (BEP-BEM) is used to perform this analysis. The BEP-BEM schemes are modified to account for partial AC use and used to analyze current and full AC adoption scenarios. A city-scale case study is performed over the summer months of June – August 2018, which includes three different extreme heat events. Simulation results show good agreement with surface weather stations. Results show that increasing AC systems to 100% usage across NYC results in a peak energy demand increase of 20%, while the UHI slightly increases on average by 0.42 °C. Results highlight potential tradeoffs in extreme heat adaptation strategies for cities, which may be necessary in the context of increasing extreme heat events.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapting to Extreme Heat: Social, Atmospheric, and Infrastructure Impacts of Air-Conditioning in Megacities—The Case of New York City

Gamarro

Ortiz

González

2020

ASME Journal of Engineering for Sustainable Buildings and Cities

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“…This makes NYC an epicenter for examining climate change impacts given studies that suggest environmental challenges are expected to worsen in the context of climate change (González et al. 2019 ). For example, projections indicate that NYC’s mean temperatures could rise by as much as 7.5°F by 2080 (Horton et al.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping supply of and demand for ecosystem services to assess environmental justice in New York City

Herreros-Cantis

McPhearson

2021

Ecological Applications

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Livability, resilience, and justice in cities are challenged by climate change and the historical legacies that together create disproportionate impacts on human communities. Urban green infrastructure has emerged as an important tool for climate change adaptation and resilience given their capacity to provide ecosystem services such as local temperature regulation, stormwater mitigation, and air purification. However, realizing the benefits of ecosystem services for climate adaptation depend on where they are locally supplied. Few studies have examined the potential spatial mismatches in supply and demand of urban ecosystem services, and even fewer have examined supply–demand mismatches as a potential environmental justice issue, such as when supply–demand mismatches disproportionately overlap with certain socio‐demographic groups. We spatially analyzed demand for ecosystem services relevant for climate change adaptation and combined results with recent analysis of the supply of ecosystem services in New York City (NYC). By quantifying the relative mismatch between supply and demand of ecosystem services across the city we were able to identify spatial hot‐ and coldspots of supply–demand mismatch. Hotspots are spatial clusters of census blocks with a higher mismatch and coldspots are clusters with lower mismatch values than their surrounding blocks. The distribution of mismatch hot‐ and coldspots was then compared to the spatial distribution of socio‐demographic groups. Results reveal distributional environmental injustice of access to the climate‐regulating benefits of ecosystem services provided by urban green infrastructure in NYC. Analyses show that areas with lower supply–demand mismatch tend to be populated by a larger proportion of white residents with higher median incomes, and areas with high mismatch values have lower incomes and a higher proportion of people of color. We suggest that urban policy and planning should ensure that investments in “nature‐based” solutions such as through urban green infrastructure for climate change adaptation do not reinforce or exacerbate potentially existing environmental injustices.

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“…Experiencing rapid growth in the 19th and early 20th century as well as several large public works projects in the mid-20th century, the city's urban stormwater infrastructure is ageing and needs to be adapted to the emerging precipitation pressures of climate change. Rainfall intensity is expected to increase within the city [84]. As such NYC has begun to develop policies around stormwater management [85] and has also begun piloting specific cloudburst management neighborhood design [86].…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban Pluvial Flood Management Part 1: Implementing an AHP-TOPSIS Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Method for Stakeholder Integration in Urban Climate and Stormwater Adaptation

Axelsson

Giove

Soriani

2021

Water

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Cities are facing increasing pressures to enact adaptation measures due to climate change. While blue-green infrastructure has emerged as a focal adaptation technique for stormwater management, in order to craft adaptation policies cities must consider a multitude of emerging, complex, and competing stakeholder interests around multiple adaptation alternatives. However, accounting for these different interests, analyzing their diverse priorities, and maintaining a transparent decision-making process is not easily achieved within the existing policy frameworks. Here we define and present a combined multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) methods that easily integrates and quantifies stakeholder priorities while remaining accessible for non-experts engaged in the policy-making process. We demonstrate the method’s effectiveness through analyzing opinions about stormwater adaptation in New York City across several stakeholder groups. The method succeeds in integrating quantitative and qualitative judgements, indicating stakeholder preferential differences and allowing for more inclusive policy to be crafted. It can be extended beyond stormwater to many urban climate adaptation decisions facing multi-criteria considerations.

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New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 2: New Methods for Assessing Extreme Temperatures, Heavy Downpours, and Drought

Cited by 35 publications

References 145 publications

Adapting to Extreme Heat: Social, Atmospheric, and Infrastructure Impacts of Air-Conditioning in Megacities—The Case of New York City

Adapting to Extreme Heat: Social, Atmospheric, and Infrastructure Impacts of Air-Conditioning in Megacities—The Case of New York City

Mapping supply of and demand for ecosystem services to assess environmental justice in New York City

Urban Pluvial Flood Management Part 1: Implementing an AHP-TOPSIS Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Method for Stakeholder Integration in Urban Climate and Stormwater Adaptation

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