New vigour involving statisticians to overcome ensemble fatigue

Benestad, Rasmus E.; Sillmann, Jana; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis L.; Guttorp, Peter; Mesquita, Michel D. S.; Tye, Mari R.; Uotila, Petteri; Maule, Cathrine Fox; Thejll, Peter; Drews, Martin; Parding, Kajsa M.

doi:10.1038/nclimate3393

Cited by 36 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…The vast amounts of data produced from multi-model Fig. 1 Organizational structure of EURO-CORDEX based on the decision in the 6th GA. Point of contacts (POCs) are shown for each of the EURO-CORDEX pillars ensembles with different model combinations make stateof-the-art statistical methods necessary in order to make sense of all the data, however, the statistics community has not yet been widely engaged in the analysis of the data (Benestad et al 2017b). This activity is seen as crucial to the effective integration and collaboration between EURO-CORDEX and the VIACS/policy communities, as this is where the output of the scientific activity makes its way into decision-making.…”

Section: Organizational Structure Of Euro-cordexmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Deser et al (2012) pointed out that GCMs produce pronounced chaotic variations on regional scales even over decades, and demonstrated that one model with slightly different initial conditions could produce a wide range of local scenarios. One important question therefore concerns the minimum size of a reliable ensemble that is not susceptible to random fluctuations and the law of small numbers (Benestad et al 2017b). Given the multiplicity of messages, users may be inadequately prepared to incorporate state-of-the-art climate information or may make inappropriate decisions if messages from limited, nonrobust, unreliable subsets of data are adopted (Fernández et al 2019).…”

Section: Organizational Structure Of Euro-cordexmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community

et al. 2020

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The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)-Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11 • EUR-11 and 0.44 • EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empiricalstatistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe.

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Section: Organizational Structure Of Euro-cordexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Organizational Structure Of Euro-cordexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community

et al. 2020

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“…These impact assessment studies are often accompanied by projection of an ecological variable using future climate change scenario data as inputs to ecological models and agronomic models [3][4][5] . However, the compounded effect of uncertainty inherent in the climate input data to the models can affect the projected results 6 . A multi-model ensemble approach has been used to minimize the uncertainty of the projection data 7,8 .…”

Section: A Surrogate Weighted Mean Ensemble Methods To Reduce the Uncementioning

confidence: 99%

A surrogate weighted mean ensemble method to reduce the uncertainty at a regional scale for the calculation of potential evapotranspiration

Kim

Lee

Hoogenboom

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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“…We also develop UCLEM to add to the small group of models capable of studying interactions between energy use and the urban environment. Numerical weather prediction and synthetic model studies show that a multi‐model ensemble average often outperforms any single “best” model (Weigel et al, ), and that ensembles are required to adequately span the probability space of climate systems (Benestad et al, ). Many land surface models have been developed which can form part of an ensemble for climate studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A building energy demand and urban land surface model

Lipson

Thatcher

Hart

et al. 2018

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Cities are unique environments where anthropogenic waste heat from energy consumption changes the dynamics of the boundary layer, affecting temperatures, pollution dispersion and buoyancy-driven flows. Although urban environments are important for societal wellbeing, there are relatively few models that link predictions of waste heat variability with urban climate interactions. This study presents the Urban Climate and Energy Model (UCLEM): a new physically based model representing important heat transfer processes between the atmosphere, external and internal urban environments, combined with a statistical model of human behaviours relating to energy use. The aim of UCLEM is to efficiently predict the climatology of different urban areas, as well as the energy used to maintain comfortable temperatures within buildings. The model is designed to be easily adaptable to a wide range of urban settings with adjustable parameters including building height, density, material thermal and radiative characteristics and vegetation fractions. We assess UCLEM's ability to predict energy consumption for a neighbourhood of Melbourne, Australia, forced by local flux tower observations and evaluated at half-hourly intervals over 12 months. Results are presented in four development stages to assess various levels of physical and behavioural model complexity. We show that more complete physical representations can improve average daily energy consumption predictions; however, sub-daily patterns of energy use are improved only by combining the physics-based model with a statistical model of human behaviour. At the final stage, as well as predicting surface-atmosphere radiant and turbulent fluxes, UCLEM estimates neighbourhood energy demand with a normalised mean error of 11.5% and a computation time on a single processor of about 1 s per simulation year. KEYWORDS anthropogenic waste heat, building energy demand, urban meteorology 1 Q J R Meteorol Soc. 2018;144:1572-1590.wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/qj

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New vigour involving statisticians to overcome ensemble fatigue

Cited by 36 publications

References 61 publications

Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community

Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community

A surrogate weighted mean ensemble method to reduce the uncertainty at a regional scale for the calculation of potential evapotranspiration

A building energy demand and urban land surface model

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