New urban planning challenges under emerging autonomous mobility: evaluating backcasting scenarios and policies through an expert survey

Nogués, Soledad; González-González, Esther; Cordera, Rubén

doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104652

Cited by 32 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“… AlSabbagh et al, 2017 , Akin and Kara, 2020 , Berrittella et al, 2008 , Boon and van Wee, 2017 , Charanwanitwong and Fraszczyk, 2018 , CitroÃ« n, 2020 , Darcy and Burke, 2018 , EIT, 2020a , EIT, 2020b , Epstein and Givoni, 2016 , Goletz et al, 2020 , Hart et al, 2009 , Hirschhorn et al, 2018 , Jain et al, 2014 , Jittrapirom et al, 2018 , Kattirtzi and Winskel, 2020 , Kester et al, 2018 , Kester et al, 2020 , Krause et al, 2016 , Krause et al, 2020 , Lyons and Davidson, 2016 , Melander et al, 2019 , Munira and Santoso, 2017 , NoguÃ© s et al, 2020 , Noel et al, 2019 , Potter et al, 1999 , Salmon et al, 2019 , Shakibaei et al, 2020 , Shiftan et al, 2003 , Stamos et al, 2016 , Sovacool et al, 2018a , Sovacool et al, 2018b , Suman et al, 2017 , Sureeyatanapas et al, 2018 , TennÃ¸ y et al, 2015 , The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2020 , Ãœlengin et al, 2018 , Valero-Gil et al, 2018 , Van der Pas et al, 2012a , Van der Pas et al, 2012b , Van Ristell et al, 2013 , Varho et al, 2013 , Workman et al, 2020 , Xenias and Whitmarsh, 2013 , Xylia and Silveira, 2017 , Zhang et al, 2020c , Zubaryeva et al, 2012 .…”

Section: Uncited Referencementioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 and transport: Findings from a world-wide expert survey

2021

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Section: Uncited Referencementioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 and transport: Findings from a world-wide expert survey

2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…To consider different scenarios that reflect the range of foreseeable alternatives gives decision makers the opportunity to anticipate by formulating policies and actions that minimize or mitigate negative effects caused by AVs and at the same time promote their potential benefits. Measures could include policies aimed at promoting active modes and public transport, which could be enhanced given the possibilities offered by automation, by restricting the use of AVs in certain urban areas or establishing appropriate pricing for their use [40]. Dynamic road pricing to reduce kilometers traveled could easily be implemented in AVs thanks to in-vehicle navigation and communication systems [39].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Land Use Using a LUTI Model

et al. 2021

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Autonomous vehicles (AVs) can generate major changes in urban systems due to their ability to use road infrastructures more efficiently and shorten trip times. However, there is great uncertainty about these effects and about whether the use of these vehicles will continue to be private, in continuity with the current paradigm, or whether they will become shared (carsharing/ridesharing). In order to try to shed light on these matters, the use of a scenario-based methodology and the evaluation of the scenarios using a land use–transport interaction model (LUTI model TRANSPACE) is proposed. This model allows simulating the impacts that changes in the transport system can generate on the location of households and companies oriented to local demand and accessibility conditions. The obtained results allow us to state that, if AVs would generate a significant increase in the capacity of urban and interurban road infrastructures, the impacts on mobility and on the location of activities could be positive, with a decrease in the distances traveled, trip times, and no evidence of significant urban sprawl processes. However, if these increases in capacity are accompanied by a large augment in the demand for shared journeys by new users (young, elderly) or empty journeys, the positive effects could disappear. Thus, this scenario would imply an increase in trip times, reduced accessibilities, and longer average distances traveled, all of which could cause the unwanted effect of expelling activities from the consolidated urban center.

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“…A clear and detailed image of the future is needed to discuss what changes are necessary to reach them, and this is where the backcasting study provides a solution [73,74]. Its purpose is to search for alternative pathways and recommend specific policy implementations for the development while trying to avoid or prevent more negative effects of the changes [75].…”

Section: Scenario Typologymentioning

confidence: 99%

A Backcasting Analysis toward a 100% Renewable Energy Transition by 2040 for Off-Grid Islands

et al. 2022

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The rapid increase in energy consumption results from population growth and technological advancement, while economic growth also relies heavily on the availability of energy. As fossil fuels become scarcer and greenhouse gas emissions increase, renewable energy sources are regarded as practical solutions to meet increasing energy demands. This study aims to develop a sustainable energy transition pathway for off-grid island communities in the Philippines. It adopts the concept of backcasting analysis, focusing on the demand and supply side of the energy transition. The transition considers three milestones: business as usual (BAU), minimal transition scenario (MTS), and absolute transition scenario (ATS). The techno-enviro-economic analysis is performed for each milestone to determine the optimal energy resource mix while addressing the three dimensions of the Energy Trilemma: energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability. The approach is implemented in three off-grid island municipalities in Palawan, Philippines: Araceli, Balabac, and Cuyo. The results suggest that the optimal electrification configuration for each island at the MTS is a hybrid system consisting of a diesel generator and solar photovoltaics with batteries, while at the ATS, it is a hybrid system of solar photovoltaics and wind with batteries. In addition, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 79.7% in Araceli, 78.7% in Balabac, and 41.2% in Cuyo from the BAU scenario to MTS. The actors involved in said transition are identified. A transitional pathway can be seen as a strategic plan to achieve the desired goal: to have a sustainable energy transition.

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New urban planning challenges under emerging autonomous mobility: evaluating backcasting scenarios and policies through an expert survey

Cited by 32 publications

References 43 publications

COVID-19 and transport: Findings from a world-wide expert survey

COVID-19 and transport: Findings from a world-wide expert survey

Modeling the Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Land Use Using a LUTI Model

A Backcasting Analysis toward a 100% Renewable Energy Transition by 2040 for Off-Grid Islands

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