New simulations and understanding of the 1908 Messina tsunami for a dual seismic and deep submarine mass failure source

Schambach, Lauren; Grilli, Stéphan T.; Tappin, D. R.; Gangemi, M. D.; Barbaro, Giuseppe

doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2019.106093

Cited by 50 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…We numerically simulate the 2018 Palu tsunami generation and propagation from earthquake or landslide sources, and the two in combination. We follow a methodology similar to that used in recent work by the authors and collaborators for other dual earthquake/landslide mechanisms (e.g., Tappin et al, 2014;Grilli et al, 2015;Grilli et al, 2017;Grilli et al, 2019;Schambach et al, 2019;Schambach et al, 2020). Using the best available bathymetric/topographic data, together with higher resolution computational grids than used in previous studies, we apply two state-of-the-art dispersive wave models: 1) the 3D non-hydrostatic wave model NHWAVE (Ma et al, 2012), with an underlying slide layer (Ma et al, 2015;Kirby et al, 2016), to simulate both the landslide motion and related tsunami generation, and 2) the 2D fully nonlinear Boussinesq wave model FUNWAVE-TVD (Shi et al, 2012) to simulate the propagation to the far-field and the coast of the superposition of landslide and coseismic tsunamis (or each individually), in nested grids of increasing resolution toward the shore.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…NHWAVE was extensively validated for a variety of tsunami benchmarks (Zhang et al, 2017), including laboratory experiments for slides made of glass beads performed by some of the authors (Grilli et al, 2017). The model was also used to simulate historical case studies, for which tsunami coastal impact had been measured (Tappin et al, 2014;Grilli et al, 2019;Schambach et al, 2020). In the latter cases, the initial unfailed landslide geometry is first recreated by moving the failed landslide material upslope.…”

Section: Numerical Models and Tsunami Modeling Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Inland, the earthquake triggered landslides and induced considerable liquefaction that resulted in major destruction and numerous fatalities (Bradley et al, 2019;Watkinson and Hall, 2019;Miyajima et al, 2019). From eyewitness accounts and video evidence (Sassa and Takagawa, 2019), almost immediately after the earthquake, numerous coastal areas along Palu Bay experienced landslides (see locations of main ones marked LS-in Figure 1B), which were rapidly followed by destructive tsunami waves (Arikawa et al, 2018;Carvajal et al, 2019). The earthquake, ground liquefaction, landslides, and tsunamis resulted in 4,340 fatalities and approximately 68,500 buildings were damaged or destroyed (BNPB, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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New High-Resolution Modeling of the 2018 Palu Tsunami, Based on Supershear Earthquake Mechanisms and Mapped Coastal Landslides, Supports a Dual Source

2021

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The Mw 7.5 earthquake that struck Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, on September 28, 2018, was rapidly followed by coastal landslides and destructive tsunami waves within Palu Bay. Here, we present new tsunami modeling that supports a dual source mechanism from the supershear strike-slip earthquake and coastal landslides. Up until now the tsunami mechanism: earthquake, coastal landslides, or a combination of both, has remained controversial, because published research has been inconclusive; with some studies explaining most observations from the earthquake and others the landslides. Major challenges are the numerous different earthquake source models used in tsunami modeling, and that landslide mechanisms have been hypothetical. Here, we simulate tsunami generation using three published earthquake models, alone and in combination with seven coastal landslides identified in earlier work and confirmed by field and bathymetric evidence which, from video evidence, produced significant waves. To generate and propagate the tsunamis, we use a combination of two wave models, the 3D non-hydrostatic model NHWAVE and the 2D Boussinesq model FUNWAVE-TVD. Both models are nonlinear and address the physics of wave frequency dispersion critical in modeling tsunamis from landslides, which here, in NHWAVE are modeled as granular material. Our combined, earthquake and coastal landslide, simulations recreate all observed tsunami runups, except those in the southeast of Palu Bay where they were most elevated (10.5 m), as well as observations made in video recordings and at the Pantoloan Port tide gauge located within Palu Bay. With regard to the timing of tsunami impact on the coast, results from the dual landslide/earthquake sources, particularly those using the supershear earthquake models are in good agreement with reconstructed time series at most locations. Our new work shows that an additional tsunami mechanism is also necessary to explain the elevated tsunami observations in the southeast of Palu Bay. Using partial information from bathymetric surveys in this area we show that an additional, submarine landslide here, when simulated with the other coastal slides, and the supershear earthquake mechanism better explains the observations. This supports the need for future marine geology work in this area.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Numerical Models and Tsunami Modeling Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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New High-Resolution Modeling of the 2018 Palu Tsunami, Based on Supershear Earthquake Mechanisms and Mapped Coastal Landslides, Supports a Dual Source

2021

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“…show a greater exposure of the coastal areas to risk determinants and, in particular, to erosion and inundation phenomena. In a tsunami event, especially, inundation is devasting [1]- [5] and strictly connected with erosion and urbanization.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Areas Inundated by Tsunamis Induced by Earthquakes and Landslides in the Region of Calabria, Italy

2020

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Tsunamis are catastrophic events that occur especially in the Pacific or the Indian Ocean, causing violent inundations and destroying entire cities near the coast. They can also occur in the Mediterranean Sea, but their magnitude is smaller than in the Pacific or Indian Oceans; their effects however can be as fatal, because of high coastal exposure and vulnerability. These have been growing in the last few years as a result of increased coastal anthropization. This situation leads to a careful reflection on assessments of tsunami hazard due to earthquakes or landslides and of the consequences of tsunami impacts. The paper discusses these issues through an application along the Calabrian coasts in southern Italy. Our analysis starts from the description of the phenomena that have already taken place in order to assess the risk associated with any tsunami and to manage the consequent risk affected areas. Tsunamis are due to earthquakes or landslides mainly because of the high seismicity of the particular area. Many seismic events took place over time causing the onset of landslides and coastal floods. In particular the most catastrophic were the landslide-induced tsunami in Scilla in 1783, and the tsunami in the Strait of Messina in 1908, both in Calabria. In our case study, the Scilla tsunami has been treated with reference to the reconstruction of the landslide that induced it and the related flood. It is important to interpret the mechanisms of induction and propagation of these phenomena through events that have already occurred. In this way, we can have a complete picture of the risk and management of these phenomena in our territory, essential for human safety. The reconstruction of the event was made using QGIS and MATLAB software. QGIS was used to reconstruct the geometric domain, to interpret bathymetric data provided by the IGM (the Military Geographical Institute) and to map areas with risk of flooding, necessary for the management phase. MATLAB was used to reconstruct landslide geometry and the propagation mechanism.

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“…These interventions can trigger intense erosive processes [26]- [38]. Also, anthropogenic pressure can increase the vulnerability of the territory under the action of natural events such as floods and sea storms [39]- [45]. Generally, most studies in the scientific literature treat floods and sea storms in separate ways.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Concurrent Conditions of Floods and Sea Storms: A Case Study of Crotone, Italy

et al. 2020

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The considerable anthropogenic pressure that has occurred since the second half of the last century has increased the vulnerability of coastal areas to the effects of natural events such as floods and sea storms, especially if these events occur simultaneously. This paper analyses the conditions that favour the concurrence of floods and sea storms through a case study near Crotone, a city in southern Italy on the Ionian Sea. The study area has a coastal extension of about 34 km, is characterized by typical rivers called "fiumare" and has been hit by several events of concurrent floods and sea storms. The conditions that favour the concurrence of floods and sea storms are mainly related to geomorphologic and climatic factors. Among these latter factors, atmospheric pressure is very important. Indeed the formation of low-pressure areas is the cause of atmospheric disturbances which can affect both the sea and the coast causing heavy rains and intense sea storms. The analysis was divided into two phases. In the first, the concurrence between floods and sea storms was verified. In the second phase, the possible correlations between the main factors involved were identified: the rainfall heights, the maximum significant wave heights and the atmospheric pressure variations observed during each atmospheric disturbance. The analysis showed that the rainfall heights and the maximum significant wave heights, that are both generally independent factors, are related to a common factor, the atmospheric pressure. This result is useful in predicting concurrent events. Indeed, by predicting atmospheric pressure variations, it is possible to estimate the expected rainfall height and the expected maximum significant wave height. The methodology described in this paper can be extended to other areas with geomorphologic and climatic characteristics that are similar to those of Crotone.

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New simulations and understanding of the 1908 Messina tsunami for a dual seismic and deep submarine mass failure source

Cited by 50 publications

References 53 publications

New High-Resolution Modeling of the 2018 Palu Tsunami, Based on Supershear Earthquake Mechanisms and Mapped Coastal Landslides, Supports a Dual Source

New High-Resolution Modeling of the 2018 Palu Tsunami, Based on Supershear Earthquake Mechanisms and Mapped Coastal Landslides, Supports a Dual Source

Analysis of Areas Inundated by Tsunamis Induced by Earthquakes and Landslides in the Region of Calabria, Italy

Analysis of the Concurrent Conditions of Floods and Sea Storms: A Case Study of Crotone, Italy

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