New predictive equations and site amplification estimates for the next-generation Swiss ShakeMaps

Cauzzi, Carlo; Edwards, Benjamin; Fäh, Donat; Clinton, John; Wiemer, Stefan; Kästli, Philipp; Cua, G.; Giardini, Domenico

doi:10.1093/gji/ggu404

Cited by 45 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…We note that the predictions of Douglas et al [55] (top right) predicted a wider extent of shaking out to~50 km compared to that indicated by the mainshock data. The EGF method (bottom right) and Cauzzi et al model [56] (top left) predicted similar patterns of PGV, although in the near-field, the EGF method predicted a less regular ground-motion field with a somewhat more focussed region of the highest intensity, which was closer to the distribution of the mainshock data (bottom left). While the model of Cauzzi et al [56] appeared to have similar predictive power to the EGF approach, we note that this model is a locally derived GMPE-and many regions will not have such a model available.…”

Section: Simulation Of the M = 32 Mainshockmentioning

confidence: 74%

“…Using the various predictions (GMPE and EGF) and the available records, we present PGV maps in Figure 5. We note that the predictions of Douglas et al [55] (top right) predicted a wider extent of shaking out to ~50 [55] and Cauzzi et al [56]. Note: PGV values are only plotted where both observation and prediction were available (i.e., where EGF events were available).…”

Section: Simulation Of the M = 32 Mainshockmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…The EGF predicted PGVs (geometric mean horizontal, plus/minus one standard deviation, σ) are shown in Figure 3 along with the recorded data of the M = 3.2 event, the empirical GMPE of Douglas et al [55], and the stochastic simulation-based [45] GMPE of Cauzzi et al [56]. Each predicted PGV is comprised of numerous individual predictions from the 54 EGF events, which facilitated the calculation of the prediction's standard deviation.…”

Section: Simulation Of the M = 32 Mainshockmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the case that few EGF events are available, it is thus advisable to consider stochastic in addition to empirical phase predictions [46]. [55] and Cauzzi et al [56]. Note: PGV values are only plotted where both observation and prediction were available (i.e., where EGF events were available).…”

Section: Simulation Of the M = 32 Mainshockmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Significant outlier predictions also existed-we therefore suggest that the simulated values are used to represent a statistical distribution of possible motions rather than deterministic predictions. [55] and Cauzzi et al [56]. Note: PGV values are only plotted where both observation and prediction were available (i.e., where EGF events were available).…”

Section: Simulation Of the M = 32 Mainshockmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Hybrid Empirical Green’s Function Technique for Predicting Ground Motion from Induced Seismicity: Application to the Basel Enhanced Geothermal System

et al. 2018

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A method is described for the prediction of site-specific surface ground motion due to induced earthquakes occurring in predictable and well-defined source zones. The method is based on empirical Green's functions (EGFs), determined using micro-earthquakes at sites where seismicity is being induced (e.g., hydraulic fracturing and wastewater injection during shale oil and gas extraction, CO 2 sequestration, and conventional and enhanced geothermal injection). Using the EGF approach, a ground-motion field (e.g., an intensity map) can be calculated for a potentially felt induced event originating within the seismic zone. The approach allows site-and path-specific effects to be mapped into the ground-motion field, providing a local ground-motion model that accounts for wave-propagation effects without the requirement of 3D velocity models or extensive computational resources. As a test case, the ground-motion field for the mainshock (M L = 3.4, M = 3.2) resulting from the Basel Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) was simulated using only seismicity recorded prior to the event. We focussed on peak ground velocity (PGV), as this is a measure of ground motion on which Swiss norms for vibration disturbances are based. The performance of the method was significantly better than a previously developed generic ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for induced earthquakes and showed improved performance through intrinsic inclusion of site-specific effects relative to predictions for a local GMPE. Both median motions and the site-to-site ground-motion variability were captured, leading to significantly reduced misfit relative to the generic GMPE. It was shown, however, that extrapolation beyond units of a couple of magnitude leads to significant uncertainty. The method is well suited to a real-time predictive hazard framework, for which shaking estimates are dynamically updated in light of newly recorded seismicity.

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Section: Simulation Of the M = 32 Mainshockmentioning

confidence: 74%

Section: Simulation Of the M = 32 Mainshockmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Simulation Of the M = 32 Mainshockmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Simulation Of the M = 32 Mainshockmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Simulation Of the M = 32 Mainshockmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

A Hybrid Empirical Green’s Function Technique for Predicting Ground Motion from Induced Seismicity: Application to the Basel Enhanced Geothermal System

et al. 2018

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Earthquake‐induced soft‐sediment deformations and seismically amplified erosion rates recorded in varved sediments of Köyceğiz Lake (SW Turkey)

et al. 2016

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Earthquake‐triggered landslides amplify erosion rates in catchments, i.e., catchment response (CR) to seismic shocks. In addition to historical eyewitness accounts of muddy rivers implying CRs after large earthquakes, several studies have quantitatively reported increased sediment concentrations in rivers after earthquakes. However, only a few paleolimnological studies could detect CRs within lacustrine sedimentary sequences as siliciclastic‐enriched intercalations within background sedimentation. Since siliciclastic‐enriched intercalations can easily be of nonseismic origin, their temporal correlation with nearby earthquakes is crucial to assign a seismic triggering mechanism. In most cases, either uncertainties in dating methods or the lack of recent seismic activity has prevented reliable temporal correlations, making the seismic origin of observed sedimentary events questionable. Here we attempt to remove this question mark by presenting sedimentary traces of CRs in the 370‐year‐long varved sequence of Köyceğiz Lake (SW Turkey) that we compare with estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) values of several nearby earthquakes. We find that earthquakes exceeding estimated PGA values of ~20 cm/s2 can induce soft‐sediment deformations, while CRs seem only to be triggered by PGA levels higher than 70 cm/s2. In Köyceğiz Lake, CRs produce Cr‐ and Ni‐enriched sedimentation due to the seismically mobilized soils derived from ultramafic rocks in the catchment. Given the varve chronology, the residence time of the seismically mobilized material in the catchment is determined to be 5 to 10 years.

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Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2014

et al. 2015

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this report of the swiss seismological service summarizes the seismic activity in switzerland and surrounding regions during 2008. During this period, 451 earthquakes and 75 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. the three strongest events occurred in the Valais, near Lac des toules (M L 3.6), and in Graubünden, near Ilanz (M L 3.7) and Paspels (M L 4.0). Although felt by the population, they were not reported to have caused any damage. However, with a total of only 15 events with M L ≥ 2.5, the seismic activity in the year 2008 was far below the average over the previous 33 years. ZusAmmenfAssunGDieser bericht des schweizerischen erdbebendienstes stellt eine Zusammenfassung der im Vorjahr in der schweiz und umgebung aufgetretenen erd- IntroductionPast earthquake activity in and around switzerland has been documented in an uninterrupted series of annual reports from 1879 until 1963 (Jahresberichte des Schweizerischen Erdbebendienstes). three additional annual reports have been published for the years 1972-1974. these reports together with historical records of earthquakes dating back to the 13th century have been summarized by Pavoni (1977) and provided the basis for the first seismic hazard map of switzerland (sä-gesser & mayer-rosa 1978). With the advent of routine data processing by computer, the wealth of data acquired by the nationwide seismograph network has been regularly documented in bulletins with detailed lists of all recorded events (Monthly Bulletin of the Swiss Seismological Service). since 1996, annual reports summarizing the seismic activity in switzerland and surrounding regions have been published in the present form , 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005Deichmann et al. 1998 Deichmann et al. , 2000aDeichmann et al. , 2002Deichmann et al. , 2004 Deichmann et al. , 2006 Deichmann et al. , 2008. In the course of reassessing the seismic hazard in switzerland, a new uniform earthquake catalog covering both the historical and instrumental periods has been compiled (fäh et al. 2003). the data in the new earthquake catalog of switzerland (ecOs) are available on line (http://www.seismo.ethz.ch, swiss earthquake catalogs). the new seismic hazard map of switzerland based on this catalog was officially released in 2004(Giardini et al. 2004Wiemer et al. 2009). In addition, numerous studies covering different aspects of the recent seismicity of switzerland have been published in the scientific literature (for an overview and additional references see, e.g. Deichmann 1990;Pavoni & roth 1990;rüttener 1995;rüttener at al. 1996;Pavoni et al. 1997;Deichmann et al. 2000b; Kastrup et al. 2004;Kastrup et al. 2007). Data acquisition and analysis Seismic stations in operation during 2008the swiss seismological service operates two separate nationwide seismic networks, a high-gain broad-band seismometer earthquakes in switzerland and surrounding regions during 2008

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New predictive equations and site amplification estimates for the next-generation Swiss ShakeMaps

Cited by 45 publications

References 42 publications

A Hybrid Empirical Green’s Function Technique for Predicting Ground Motion from Induced Seismicity: Application to the Basel Enhanced Geothermal System

A Hybrid Empirical Green’s Function Technique for Predicting Ground Motion from Induced Seismicity: Application to the Basel Enhanced Geothermal System

Earthquake‐induced soft‐sediment deformations and seismically amplified erosion rates recorded in varved sediments of Köyceğiz Lake (SW Turkey)

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2014

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