New perspectives on the collective risk of extratropical cyclones

Hunter, Alasdair; Stephenson, David B.; Economou, Theo; Holland, Martin; Cook, Ian

doi:10.1002/qj.2649

Cited by 19 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 42 publications

(101 reference statements)

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“…They showed that five teleconnection patterns are significant at the 5% level with regard to explaining the inter-annual variability: NAO, SCA, EA pattern, EA/WR and the Polar pattern (POL). More recently, Hunter, Stephenson, Economou, Holland, and Cook (2016) found a significant correlation between cyclone counts in Scandinavia and the SCA index. In terms of a physical link between large-scale patterns and European storminess, Woollings and Blackburn (2012) could detect an influence of the NAO and the EA on the location and strength of the North Atlantic jet stream which is in turn responsible for increased or decreased storminess during the European winter.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Modelling serial clustering and inter‐annual variability of European winter windstorms based on large‐scale drivers

Walz

Befort

Kirchner-Bossi

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Winter windstorms are known to be among the most dangerous and loss intensive natural hazards in Europe. In order to gain a better understanding of their variability and driving mechanisms, this study analyses the temporal variability which is often referred to as serial or seasonal clustering. This is realized by developing a statistical model relating the winter storm counts to known teleconnection patterns affecting European weather and climate conditions (e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Scandinavian pattern [SCA], etc.). The statistical model is developed via a stepwise Poisson regression approach that is applied to windstorm counts and large-scale indices retrieved from the ERA-20C reanalysis. Significant largescale drivers accountable for the inter-annual variability of storms for several European regions are identified and compared. In addition to the SCA and the NAO which are found to be the essential drivers for most areas within the European domain, other teleconnections (e.g., East Atlantic pattern) are found to be more significant for the inter-annual variability in certain regions. Furthermore, the statistical model allows an estimation of the expected number of storms per winter season and also whether a season has the characteristic of being what we define an active or inactive season. The statistical model reveals high skill particularly over British Isles and central Europe; however, even for regions with less frequent storm events (e.g., southern and eastern Europe) the model shows adequate positive skill. This feature could be of specific interest for the actuarial sector.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Modelling serial clustering and inter‐annual variability of European winter windstorms based on large‐scale drivers

Walz

Befort

Kirchner-Bossi

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Investigations of multihazards can take a number of perspectives. Gallina et al (), Kappes et al (), Fuchs et al (), and Goddard et al (), amongst others, discuss the challenges of multihazard analysis in the context of two approaches: spatial focus (e.g., Hunter et al, ) versus a thematic focus (e.g., Gill & Malamud, ), and the difficulty associated with using climate information for risk management, vulnerability assessment, and decision making. Osgood et al () discuss the practicalities of using financial instruments for risk sharing in the context of ENSO impacts on agriculture in Malawi.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The study of Hunter et al () addresses aggregate risk (the risk of multiple events within a season) for North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. They investigate the nature of joint forcings using a mathematical framework and look at five large‐scale flow patterns, including the NAO and the East Atlantic Pattern.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience

Steptoe

Jones

Fox

2018

Reviews of Geophysics

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Occurrences of concurrent extreme atmospheric hazards represent a significant area of uncertainty for organizations involved in disaster mitigation and risk management. Understanding risks posed by natural disasters and their relationship with global climate drivers is crucial in preparing for extreme events. In this review we quantify the strength of the physical mechanisms linking hazards and atmosphere‐ocean processes. We demonstrate how research from the science community may be used to support disaster risk reduction and global sustainable development efforts. We examine peer‐reviewed literature connecting 16 regions affected by extreme atmospheric hazards and eight key global drivers of weather and climate. We summarize current understanding of multihazard disaster risk in each of these regions and identify aspects of the global climate system that require further investigation to strengthen our resilience in these areas. We show that some drivers can increase the risk of concurrent hazards across different regions. Organizations that support disaster risk reduction, or underwrite exposure, in multiple regions may have a heightened risk of facing multihazard losses. We find that 15 regional hazards share connections via the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, with the Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode being secondary sources of significant regional interconnectivity. From a hazard perspective, rainfall over China shares the most connections with global drivers and has links to both Northern and Southern Hemisphere modes of variability. We use these connections to assess the global likelihood of concurrent hazard occurrence in support of multihazard resilience and disaster risk reduction goals.

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“…Pinto et al, 2009). Furthermore, the NAO and other large-scale modes affect both the frequency and intensity of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic (Hunter et al, 2016). The existence of clustering has been associated with NAO variability (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Robustness of serial clustering of extratropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method

Pinto

Ulbrich

Economou

et al. 2016

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

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A B S T R A C T Cyclone clusters are a frequent synoptic feature in the Euro-Atlantic area. Recent studies have shown that serial clustering of cyclones generally occurs on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track, while cyclones tend to occur more regulary on the western side of the North Atlantic basin near Newfoundland. This study explores the sensitivity of serial clustering to the choice of cyclone tracking method using cyclone track data from 15 methods derived from ERA-Interim data (1979Á2010). Clustering is estimated by the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of winter [December Á February (DJF)] cyclone passages near each grid point over the Euro-Atlantic area. The mean number of cyclone counts and their variance are compared between methods, revealing considerable differences, particularly for the latter. Results show that all different tracking methods qualitatively capture similar large-scale spatial patterns of underdispersion and overdispersion over the study region. The quantitative differences can primarily be attributed to the differences in the variance of cyclone counts between the methods. Nevertheless, overdispersion is statistically significant for almost all methods over parts of the eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe, and is therefore considered as a robust feature. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on cyclone clustering displays a similar pattern for all tracking methods, with one maximum near Iceland and another between the Azores and Iberia. The differences in variance between methods are not related with different sensitivities to the NAO, which can account to over 50% of the clustering in some regions. We conclude that the general features of underdispersion and overdispersion of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Western Europe are robust to the choice of tracking method. The same is true for the influence of the NAO on cyclone dispersion.

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New perspectives on the collective risk of extratropical cyclones

Cited by 19 publications

References 42 publications

Modelling serial clustering and inter‐annual variability of European winter windstorms based on large‐scale drivers

Modelling serial clustering and inter‐annual variability of European winter windstorms based on large‐scale drivers

Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience

Robustness of serial clustering of extratropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method

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