New observational information on the precursory accelerating and decelerating strain energy release

Papazachos, C. B.; Karakaisis, G. F.; Scordilis, E. M.; Papazachos, B. C.

doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.004

Cited by 26 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…In the D-AS model developed by Papazachos et al, (2006a) one of the constraints on which the estimation (prediction) of the origin time, t c , of the ensuing mainshock is based, is a relation similar to relation (2). In that relation the start time, t sa , of the accelerating preshock sequence is used instead of which is used in the present work.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The circular regions where accelerating preshocks occurred have been identified and the start time, t s , of each accelerating preshock sequence has been calculated in previous work (Papazachos et al, 2005(Papazachos et al, , 2006a. The fifth and sixth column of dinates of the center, Q, and the radius, R (in km), of each circular region (critical region) where the epicenters of accelerating preshocks are located.…”

Section: Procedures Followedmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the same table the start time, t sa (in years), the minimum preshock magnitude, M min , and the number, n, of accelerating preshocks are also listed. These listed values have been defined by constraints put by the D-AS model which was developed on the basis of observations and theoretical considerations (Papazachos et al 2005(Papazachos et al , 2006a.…”

Section: Procedures Followedmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Decelerating preshocks have been also observed before many strong mainshocks and their time variation is also expressed by a relation of the form (1) with m>1 (Papazachos et al, 2005(Papazachos et al, , 2006a. The decelerating seismic strain is attributed to static stress shadow (Papazachos et al, 2006a) that can be interpreted by the Stress Accumulation Model (Bowman and King, 2001;King and Bowman, 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The decelerating seismic strain is attributed to static stress shadow (Papazachos et al, 2006a) that can be interpreted by the Stress Accumulation Model (Bowman and King, 2001;King and Bowman, 2003). Papazachos et al (2006a), based on published information on decelerating and accelerating precursory seismic strain and on relative global data, developed the Decelerating-Accelerating Seismic Strain (D-AS) model. This model is formed of a series of empirical relations, most of which have been physically interpreted and can be used to estimate (predict) the origin time, epicenter coordinates and the magnitude of strong mainshocks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Correlations of the Mean Time and Mean Magnitude of Accelerating Preshocks With the Origin Time and Magnitude of Mainshock

Scordilis

2017

geosociety

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Procedures Followedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Procedures Followedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Correlations of the Mean Time and Mean Magnitude of Accelerating Preshocks With the Origin Time and Magnitude of Mainshock

Scordilis

2017

geosociety

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Brittle Failure Mechanism of Multiple Locked Patches in a Seismogenic Fault and Exploration of a New Approach to Earthquake Prediction

Qin

et al. 2010

Chinese J of Geophysics

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This study attempts to reveal the possible linkage between the critical failure‐fracture and creep process of locked patches in a seimogenic fault. It suggests that the ratio of cumulative Benioff strain of the fracture point to that of the start point of accelerating creep on each locked patch depends on the number of locked patches in an exponential rule with a base value 1.48. Prior to the failure of the last locked patch, the critical failure‐fracture of each patch may produce a preshock of intermediate size or larger. And after the failure of the last patch, the main shock would occur. The retrospective predictions to many seismic events demonstrate that this exponential rule can be used to forecast intermediate‐sized preshocks and large main shocks. This method can be applied to efforts of intermediate‐term and short‐term as well as impending earthquake prediction. The value 1.48 is very likely a universal constant that is indicative of the generation processes of intermediate‐sized or larger preshocks and main shocks. At last, this paper discusses some controversial issues in research of earthquake prediction and proves the applicability of this method from perspectives of theory and technology.

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Spatial and temporal volcanotectonic evolution of Santorini volcano, Greece

2022

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Volcanic and tectonic activities in the Aegean region have controlled the evolution of Santorini volcano, including changes in the shape and size of the island through time. Previous studies associate much of the island’s volcanic activity with the presence of regional faults, but a comprehensive volcanotectonic study that clarifies the relationship between dyking and faulting in the island has not been made. Here we present a detailed structural analysis focused on the northern caldera wall of Santorini, where numerous dykes and faults outcrop and can be studied in the mesoscale. To augment our discussion of dyke and fault interactions, we combine previous volcanological and geophysical observations with our structural analysis to report the volcanotectonic evolution of the northern part of the island and design a conceptual spatial-temporal model. We mapped 91 dyke segments and 15 faults and classified the latter, where possible, with respect to their observed or recorded kinematics, their size, and the active stress field under which they were formed based on prior geophysical data. We relate our observations to a mechanical unconformity within the northern caldera wall. Our field observations, coupled with previous numerical, geophysical, and volcanological studies, offer insights on the interaction between dykes and faults and indicate the conditions under which the faults facilitated magma emplacement, or not, during the volcano’s activity. Our analysis attempts to answer an essential question: under what conditions do crustal faults facilitate or inhibit magma propagation to the surface, with application to the island of Santorini.

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New observational information on the precursory accelerating and decelerating strain energy release

Cited by 26 publications

References 35 publications

Correlations of the Mean Time and Mean Magnitude of Accelerating Preshocks With the Origin Time and Magnitude of Mainshock

Correlations of the Mean Time and Mean Magnitude of Accelerating Preshocks With the Origin Time and Magnitude of Mainshock

Brittle Failure Mechanism of Multiple Locked Patches in a Seismogenic Fault and Exploration of a New Approach to Earthquake Prediction

Spatial and temporal volcanotectonic evolution of Santorini volcano, Greece

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