New method for assessing the susceptibility of glacial lakes to outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Emmer, Adam; Vilímek, Vít

doi:10.5194/hess-18-3461-2014

Cited by 79 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Lake stabilisation efforts included constructing a reinforced concrete and steel dam within the terminal moraine and artificially lowering the lake level. Despite these efforts, a significant GLOF risk is still present due to avalanche risk from hanging glaciers above, tectonic activity and the location of the stream channel draining the lake that passes through the northern edges of the city of Huaraz to join the Rio Santa (Emmer and Vilímek, 2014;Portocarrero, 2014).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Monitoring tropical debris-covered glacier dynamics from high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle photogrammetry, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Wigmore

Mark

2017

The Cryosphere

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Abstract. The glaciers of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are rapidly retreating and thinning as a result of climate change, altering the timing, quantity and quality of water available to downstream users. Furthermore, increases in the number and size of proglacial lakes associated with these melting glaciers is increasing potential exposure to glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Understanding how these glaciers are changing and their connection to proglacial lake systems is thus of critical importance. Most satellite data are too coarse for studying small mountain glaciers and are often affected by cloud cover, while traditional airborne photogrammetry and lidar are costly. Recent developments have made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) a viable and potentially transformative method for studying glacier change at high spatial resolution, on demand and at relatively low cost.Using a custom designed hexacopter built for high-altitude (4000-6000 m a.s.l.) operation, we completed repeat aerial surveys (2014 and 2015) of the debris-covered Llaca Glacier tongue and proglacial lake system. High-resolution orthomosaics (5 cm) and digital elevation models (DEMs) (10 cm) were produced and their accuracy assessed. Analysis of these datasets reveals highly heterogeneous patterns of glacier change. The most rapid areas of ice loss were associated with exposed ice cliffs and meltwater ponds on the glacier surface. Considerable subsidence and low surface velocities were also measured on the sediments within the pro-glacial lake, indicating the presence of extensive regions of buried ice and continued connection to the glacier tongue. Only limited horizontal retreat of the glacier tongue was observed, indicating that measurements of changes in aerial extent alone are inadequate for monitoring changes in glacier ice quantity.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The assessment of Emmer and Vilímek (2014) of the GLOF risk at Llaca defines this as the most likely risk scenario for this lake. Presently, the risk of a large GLOF is limited because any major rockfall and/or avalanche debris would land atop the glacier tongue.…”

Section: Glacier and Proglacial Lake Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monitoring tropical debris-covered glacier dynamics from high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle photogrammetry, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Wigmore

Mark

2017

The Cryosphere

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“…The effects of different types of slope movements on glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) initiation are also included in the susceptibility assessment methods tailored for the Cordillera Blanca Mts. (Emmer and Vilímek 2014). Research on the world-wide patterns of GLOF occurrences and characteristics is further supported by maintaining and improving the GLOF world wide database within the scope of the IPL project entitled "Database of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)-project No.…”

Section: Landslide Hazard In High Mountains and Arctic Regionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landslide Hazard and Risk Management (WCoE 2014–2017)

Štemberk

Vilímek

Klimeš

et al. 2017

Advancing Culture of Living With Landslides

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The World Centre of Excellence (WCoE) on Landslide Risk Reduction entitled "Landslide risk assessment and development guidelines for effective risk reduction" (2014-2017) was designed to contribute to the risk reduction effort formulated in the Sendai Partnership initiative. Several research activities were developed and their results were presented to a broad public through a series of articles, informative web pages and documentary movies. The research focused on improving landslide hazard assessment in a variety of natural environments, including deep-seated as well as shallow landslides. Landslide hazard assessment was applied practically through development projects in Ethiopia and Peru. Within the scope of the WCoE we proposed and conducted two projects of the International Program on Landslides (IPL). One of them is dedicated to compilation and analysis of glacial lake outburst floods (Database of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)-project No. 179) at the global level. This potentially highly damaging natural phenomenon combines characteristics offloods and debris flows and often also involves landslides in the initiation process. The other IPL project focuses on the main challenges of landslide risk reduction in the Czech Republic (Challenges for landslide hazard and risk management in "low risk" regions, Czech Republic, IPL project No. 197), which is a country with abundant landslide-related knowledge and rather low annual occurrence frequencies. Despite that, landslides cause considerable damage and financial losses, which often could be prevented if the available hazard information were to be used.

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“…Given the complexity of the problem and lack of information, local authorities and residents of Huaraz are concerned about the threat posed by the lake and have requested technical support to investigate the impacts that a GLOF could have on Huaraz and methods to reduce the risk. The latest hazard assessment for Lake Palcacocha (Emmer and Vilímek, 2014) has concluded that a GLOF resulting from moraine overtopping following an avalanche into the lake is likely; however, complete moraine failure resulting from an avalanche-generated wave is not likely, nor is moraine failure following a strong earthquake.…”

Section: Introduction To Glacial Lake Hazard Process Chain Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

Somos‐Valenzuela

Chisolm

Rivas

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

101

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Abstract. One of the consequences of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, is the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) from lakes that have formed at the base of retreating glaciers. GLOFs are often triggered by avalanches falling into glacial lakes, initiating a chain of processes that may culminate in significant inundation and destruction downstream. This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha, the source of a previously catastrophic GLOF on 13 December 1941, killing about 1800 people in the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes simulated here includes (1) avalanches above the lake; (2) lake dynamics resulting from the avalanche impact, including wave generation, propagation, and run-up across lakes; (3) terminal moraine overtopping and dynamic moraine erosion simulations to determine the possibility of breaching; (4) flood propagation along downstream valleys; and (5) inundation of populated areas. The results of each process feed into simulations of subsequent processes in the chain, finally resulting in estimates of inundation in the city of Huaraz. The results of the inundation simulations were converted into flood intensity and preliminary hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Three avalanche events with volumes ranging from 0.5 to 3 × 10 6 m 3 were simulated, and two scenarios of 15 and 30 m lake lowering were simulated to assess the potential of mitigating the hazard level in Huaraz. For all three avalanche events, three-dimensional hydrodynamic models show large waves generated in the lake from the impact resulting in overtopping of the damming moraine. Despite very high discharge rates (up to 63.4 × 10 3 m 3 s −1 ), the erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming moraine when simulated with a hydromorphodynamic model using excessively conservative soil characteristics that provide very little erosion resistance. With the current lake level, all three avalanche events result in inundation in Huaraz due to wave overtopping, and the resulting preliminary hazard map shows a total affected area of 2.01 km 2 , most of which is in the high hazard category. Lowering the lake has the potential to reduce the affected area by up to 35 %, resulting in a smaller portion of the inundated area in the high hazard category.

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New method for assessing the susceptibility of glacial lakes to outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Cited by 79 publications

References 39 publications

Monitoring tropical debris-covered glacier dynamics from high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle photogrammetry, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Monitoring tropical debris-covered glacier dynamics from high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle photogrammetry, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Landslide Hazard and Risk Management (WCoE 2014–2017)

Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

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