New kids on the ballot: The party-level determinants of new party success

Abstract

New parties can shake up party systems by advancing new issues, influencing established competitors and affecting the dynamics of party competition. However, which kinds of new parties are successful? While the literature has extensively focused on institutional-level and election-level drivers of new party success, the literature on party-level determinants of new party success is scarce. As most studies on new party success focus on party entry at the election level or on new party survival, we argue that these studies suffer from selection bias as they do not leverage information on unsuccessful parties. This is understandable, since quality data on unsuccessful parties’ vote shares, party organizations and ideological characteristics are scant. To overcome this limitation, we examine the party-level determinants of new party success in the Netherlands, including all parties that have participated in national parliamentary elections since 1946. Our findings have important implications for the study of new parties in modern democracies.

A Critical Literature Review of New Party Success in Central and Eastern Europe

“…Van Dyck constructs a leadership-centered model that focuses on the 'moral authority, cross-factional ties, and ideological representativeness' of party leaders as sources of party cohesion which is more likely to prevent schisms or party collapse in Peru (Van Dyck, 2018: 891). Similarly, Wieringa and Meijers (2020) demonstrate that the previous political experience of leaders is positively related to the new party breakthrough. Indeed, the networks that leaders have built prior to the launch of political parties may later transfer to part of Extended Party Networks, which extend the scope of influence that their parties have in society.…”

“…In the hierarchic structure of a political party, leaders are at the top level and make strategic decisions for the party's development. Leadership factor is often studied as part of the organization factor (Ishiyama and Stewart, 2021;Wieringa and Meijers, 2020;Bolleyer and Bytzek, 2017).…”

“…Recent studies focus on the role of the organization in new party success, stressing that organization is important in new party success, both short-term and long-term (Ishiyama and Stewart, 2021;Wieringa and Meijers, 2020;Bolleyer and Bytzek, 2017). Ishiyama and Stewart (2021) study the electoral success of ethnic parties in CEE, highlighting the role of the organization.…”

Populist but Pluralist? Populist Attitudes and Preferences for Political Pluralism in Parliament and Government

“…Exploratory analyses show that populist attitudes associate differently with different parties. We examine parties from the following three categories: parties with government experience (Model 1a), parties without government experience but with seats prior to the elections (Model 1 b) and 'outsider' or newcomer parties that had no seats at the time of the elections (Model 1c) (Wieringa and Meijers, 2020). When we estimate our model on the number of parties from each of these subtypes of parties included in the assembly, we see that populist attitudes positively associate with the inclusion of parties without government experience and outsider parties, while there is a negative association with attributing seats to parties with government experience.…”

Ontwikkeling en institutionalisering van een anti-establishmentpartij

“…Zo zijn van de twintig nieuwe partijen die tussen 1950 en 2003 in de Tweede Kamer komen, momenteel nog maar vijf partijen als zelfstandige partij actief; van de overige vijftien hebben de meeste maar korte tijd in het parlement gezeten (Beyens, Lucardie & Deschouwer, 2016). Bovendien lukt het maar een klein deel van alle opgerichte nieuwe partijen om in het parlement te komen (Wieringa & Meijers, 2020). Recente voorbeelden van partijen die snel opkwamen, maar ook snel weer verdwenen, zijn Leefbaar Nederland en de Lijst Pim Fortuyn (LPF).…”