New Growth Accounting

Gong, Binlei

doi:10.1002/ajae.12009

Cited by 19 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…The advantages of machinery compared with labor are more apparent when epidemics collide, as human beings can be infected while machines cannot. Therefore, the result of a decreasing labor-capital ratio is consistent with the induced innovation theory (Gong, 2020). The overall impact of epidemics on agricultural output, through its impact on inputs and TFP, has reduced to 0.002%.…”

Section: Estimation Resultssupporting

confidence: 85%

The impact of epidemics on agricultural production and forecast of COVID-19

Zhang

Wang

Yuan

et al. 2020

CAER

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PurposeThis article investigates the mechanism of the direct and indirect effects of epidemics on agricultural production and projects the impact of COVID-19 on agricultural output in China.Design/methodology/approachThis article first adopts a dynamic panel model and spatial Durbin model to estimate the direct and indirect effects, followed by a growth accounting method to identify the channels by which epidemics affect agriculture; finally, it projects the overall impact of COVID-19 on agriculture.FindingsThe incidence rate of epidemics in a province has a negative impact on that province's own agricultural productivity, but the increase in the input factors (land, fertilizer and machinery) can make up for the loss and thus lead to insignificant direct effects. However, this “input-offset-productivity” mechanism fails to radiate to the surrounding provinces and therefore leads to significant indirect/spillover effects. It is projected that COVID-19 will lower China's agricultural growth rate by 0.4%–2.0% in 2020 under different scenarios.Research limitations/implicationsIt is crucial to establish a timely disclosure and sharing system of epidemic information across provinces, improve the support and resilience of agricultural production in the short run and accelerate the process of agricultural modernization in the long run.Originality/valueConsidering the infectivity of epidemics, this article evaluates the mechanism of the direct and indirect effects by introducing a spatial dynamic model into the growth accounting framework. Moreover, besides the impact on input portfolio and productivity, this article also investigates whether epidemics reshape agricultural production processes due to panic effects and control measures.

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Section: Estimation Resultssupporting

confidence: 85%

The impact of epidemics on agricultural production and forecast of COVID-19

Zhang

Wang

Yuan

et al. 2020

CAER

Self Cite

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“…The above changes are consistent with the induced innovation theory, which suggests transferring from a traditional mode to modern production by adopting agricultural technology with higher productivity (Schultz, 1964;Hayami and Ruttan, 1971;Gong, 2020). As a result, advanced inputs and higher productivity can compensate for the negative impact of increasing wages.…”

Section: Mechanism Analysis Of Cropping Pattern Changessupporting

confidence: 80%

Increasing Wages, Factor Substitution, and Cropping Pattern Changes in China

Yan,

Zhang,

et al. 2023

China and World Economy

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This article analyzed the influence of increasing wages on cropping patterns from theoretical and empirical perspectives. The results showed that the increasing labor cost provided a significant incentive to adjust the grain cropping pattern, which increased the production of the three major cereal grains but reduced the production of other grain crops. Increasing wages had a significant negative impact on cash crops. More labor‐intensive cash crops experienced a larger negative impact in the context of increasing wages. The increase in labor costs also had a negative impact on the proportion of vegetables produced, which was more evident in northern China. A further mechanism test indicated that factor substitution was a significant reason for cropping pattern changes; this illustrated the substitution of labor by machinery not only between grain crops and cash crops but also among different cash crops.

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“…= 1), the input scale effect equals zero 6 This is similar to traditional economic growth accounting. Gong (2020) proposes a new growth accounting framework that provides a decomposition of the ways that economic drivers impact agricultural productivity growth. He studies how R&D investments and openness to trade impact productivity using a varying coefficient stochastic frontier model, but does not consider policy distortions.…”

Section: Conceptual Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of agricultural policy on supply and productivity: Evidence from differential changes in distortions

Hendricks

Smith

Villoria

et al. 2022

Agricultural Economics

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Incentives in agriculture are highly distorted. It has long been argued that these distortions were a key explanation for differences in supply and productivity across countries, but the empirical evidence is limited. We revisit this issue using data on policy distortions across 63 countries for the period 1961-2011.We estimate the effects of differential changes in agricultural distortions across countries on supply and productivity. We highlight concerns in our analysis and previous work about endogeneity that biases the estimated effect downwardcountries that lose comparative advantage are likely to increase support for agriculture. We address these concerns by including country and region-time fixed effects, along with a rich set of controls. Overall, we find evidence that enhanced incentives through policy changes can increase the rate of production growth, with about half of the increase due to productivity increases. This result is strongest in Sub-Saharan Africa where anti-agricultural policies on exports were reduced and in Europe where pro-agricultural policies on imports were reduced, driven largely by external pressure. Endogeneity appears to be strongest in Asia where countries have followed the typical pattern of raising support for agriculture during industrialization due to a rising farm-urban income gap.

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New Growth Accounting

Cited by 19 publications

References 70 publications

The impact of epidemics on agricultural production and forecast of COVID-19

The impact of epidemics on agricultural production and forecast of COVID-19

Increasing Wages, Factor Substitution, and Cropping Pattern Changes in China

The effects of agricultural policy on supply and productivity: Evidence from differential changes in distortions

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