New estimates of Australia’s centenarian population

Wilson, Tom; Terblanche, Wilma

doi:10.23889/ijpds.v3i1.447

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…where 𝐷 refers to cohort deaths over the last 5 years and 5 age groups. Population estimates for the latest year are then constrained to sum to the official 85+ population estimate, an adjustment which has been shown in earlier research to provide the best level of accuracy (Wilson and Terblanche 2018).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The rapid growth of Australia’s advanced age population

Wilson

Temple

2020

J Pop Research

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Australia's population at the highest ages is growing rapidly, driving increasing demand for a whole range of services often required at advanced ages. Unfortunately, official population statistics tend to become less accurate as age increases, especially in the centenarian ages. The aims of the paper are to (i) describe the growth of Australia's population at the highest ages using methods which provide greater accuracy and more detail than is available from official statistical sources; (ii) understand the demographic drivers of population growth at these ages; and (iii) urge caution with the use of official population data at the highest ages, and warn of some of the implications of doing so. State-of-the-art Extinct Generation and Survivor Ratio methods were employed to prepare robust estimates of Australia's population by sex and single years of age for each year of the period 1971 to 2018. Results show that Australia's population at the highest ages is growing very quickly. Over the 20 years to 2018 nonagenarians (those aged 90-99) grew in number from 63,000 to 181,000 (an increase of 185%), but centenarians (aged 100+) increased at an even faster rate, growing by 215% (from about 1,300 to 4,200). Official population estimates can be relied upon up to about age 85, but at higher ages the quality of single year of age population numbers may be poor. We encourage the ABS to adopt the methods described in this paper to produce official population estimates at the highest ages.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The rapid growth of Australia’s advanced age population

Wilson

Temple

2020

J Pop Research

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“…Studies have demonstrated further weaknesses exist in census migration data including in the accuracy of destination migration which is captured for infants born within the transition interval (Rees et al 2000) and for older migrants (Wilson and Terblanche 2018;Wilson 2020). In addition, age and gender profiles in census migration data for more rural and remote destinations are known to be more volatile, partly as a result of the issues above and combined with temporal unpredictability due to their relatively small populations (Peters et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Smoothing destination-specific migration flows

Dyrting

Taylor

2021

Ann Reg Sci

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Accurately estimating age profiles for destination-specific migration is requisite to understanding the determinants of population growth and projecting future change as migration is the primary growth determinant for most regions. In Australia, place-to-place flows based on the age profile of migration derived from census data are commonly used to empirically estimate destination-specific internal migration. However, such flows are heterogeneous and census data is imperfect for accurately generating migration-age profiles. Demographers have addressed this by developing a range of methods for smoothing migration probabilities. These address smoothing on a bi-regional basis, primarily with one destination–origin pairing. We propose a non-parametric method for smoothing destination-specific migration probabilities which can be applied to multi-regional smoothing and is within the generation–distribution framework of Rogers et al. (Environ Plan A 34:341–359, 2002). We demonstrate that, if total age-specific out-migration has already been estimated, smoothing destination-specific migration ratios provides a solution to imperfect input data. Using the example of Australian interstate migration, we show how the method can give an accurate fit to the migration ratio profile across high-curvature ages and a good treatment of sample noise both when the population at risk is low, such as at advanced ages, and when the destination has a low conditional probability of migration. An implementation of the method is available as an Excel add-in.

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“…[Figure 1 about here] It is unusual for analyses of migration by age and the application of model migration schedules to extend beyond ages 85 or 90. But with rapidly growing populations at the very highest ages, particularly in the nonagenarian and centenarian age groups (Robine and Cubaynes 2017;Wilson and Terblanche 2018), there is an increasing need to include these ages in models of migration age patterns and population projections. The existing model migration schedule offers two options for representing migration rates at these ages (Figure 1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Age Patterns of Internal Migration at the Highest Ages

Wilson

2020

Spat Demogr

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Model migration age schedules have proved valuable to demographers for a range of applications for over 40 years. The original Rogers-Castro curve has been extended over time to include a retirement curve, a post-retirement curve, and a student peak. With demographic analyses extending to higher age groups than in the past due to population ageing, it is important for the model schedule to faithfully reflect migration patterns at advanced ages.Recent data on internal migration in the nonagenarian and centenarian ages reveals several examples of rising then falling mobility with increasing age. This paper suggests an alternative specification of the post-retirement curve of the model schedule to reflect this pattern. The modified model migration schedule is successfully fitted to example internal migration age patterns from Australia, Canada and the Netherlands. The modified schedule should prove useful in preparing input data for population projections and analyses of migration age patterns extending to the highest ages.

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New estimates of Australia’s centenarian population

Cited by 6 publications

References 18 publications

The rapid growth of Australia’s advanced age population

The rapid growth of Australia’s advanced age population

Smoothing destination-specific migration flows

Modelling Age Patterns of Internal Migration at the Highest Ages

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