New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands

Hurk, Bart van den; Tank, Albert Klein; Lenderink, Geert; Ulden, A. van; Oldenborgh, G. J. van; Katsman, Caroline A.; Brink, Henk van den; Keller, Franziska; Bessembinder, Janette; Burgers, Gerrit; Komen, G. J.; Hazeleger, Wilco; Drijfhout, Sybren

doi:10.2166/wst.2007.533

Cited by 157 publications

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“…Due to climate change, weather conditions in the Netherlands are predicted to change significantly during summer (Van den Hurk et al 2007). Depending on the climate scenario, average annual temperature rise is predicted 1-2°C until 2050.…”

Section: Implications Of Future Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of local weather on butterfly flight behaviour, movement, and colonization: significance for dispersal under climate change

et al. 2010

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Recent climate change is recognized as a main cause of shifts in geographical distributions of species. The impacts of climate change may be aggravated by habitat fragmentation, causing regional or large scale extinctions. However, we propose that climate change also may diminish the effects of fragmentation by enhancing flight behaviour and dispersal of ectothermic species like butterflies. We show that under weather conditions associated with anticipated climate change, behavioural components of dispersal of butterflies are enhanced, and colonization frequencies increase. In a field study, we recorded flight behaviour and mobility of four butterfly species: two habitat generalists (Coenonympha pamphilus; Maniola jurtina) and two specialists (Melitaea athalia; Plebejus argus), under different weather conditions. Flying bout duration generally increased with temperature and decreased with cloudiness. Proportion of time spent flying 123Biodivers Conserv (2011) 20:483-503 DOI 10.1007 decreased with cloudiness. Net displacement generally increased with temperature. When butterflies fly longer, start flying more readily and fly over longer distances, we expect dispersal propensity to increase. Monitoring data showed that colonization frequencies moreover increased with temperature and radiation and decreased with cloudiness. Increased dispersal propensity at local scale might therefore lower the impact of habitat fragmentation on the distribution at a regional scale. Synergetic effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on population dynamics and species distributions might therefore appear to be more complex than previously assumed.

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Section: Implications Of Future Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of local weather on butterfly flight behaviour, movement, and colonization: significance for dispersal under climate change

et al. 2010

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“…, Van den Hurk et al 2006). These national climate scenarios, developed by the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI) include translated global climate projections to detailed changes in temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, wind and sea level for the Netherlands.…”

Section: Climate Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is green infrastructure an effective climate adaptation strategy for conserving biodiversity? A case study with the great crested newt

et al. 2015

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Context Increasing the amount of green infrastructure, defined as small-scale natural landscape elements, has been named as a climate adaptation measure for biodiversity. While green infrastructure strengthened ecological networks in some studies, it is not known whether this effect also holds under climate change, and how it compares to other landscape adaptation options. ObjectivesWe assessed landscape adaptation options under scenarios of climate change for a dispersallimited and climate-sensitive species: great crested newt, Triturus cristatus. Methods A spatially-explicit modelling framework was used to simulate newt metapopulation dynamics in a case study area in the Netherlands, under alternative spatial configurations of 500 ha to-berestored habitat. The framework incorporated weather-related effects on newt recruitment, following current and changing climate conditions. Results Mild climate change resulted in slightly higher metapopulation viability, while more severe climate change (i.e. more frequent mild winters and summer droughts) had detrimental effects on metapopulation viability. The modelling framework revealed interactions between climate and landscape configuration on newt viability. Restoration of ponds and terrestrial habitat may reduce the negative effects of climate change, but only when certain spatial requirements (habitat density, connectivity) as well as abiotic requirements (high ground water level) are met. Conclusions Landscape scenarios where habitat was added in the form of green infrastructure were not able to meet these multiple conditions, as was the case for a scenario that enlarged core areas. The approach allowed a deduction of landscape design rules that incorporated both spatial and abiotic requirements resulting in more effective climate adaptation options.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article

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“…The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) constructed climate scenarios for the Netherlands based on global and regional climate models (Lenderink et al 2007; Van den Hurk et al 2007). In 2014 the KNMI scenarios for 2050 and 2085 were updated (Van den Hurk et al 2014).…”

Section: Climate Scenarios In the Netherlandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In 2014 the KNMI scenarios for 2050 and 2085 were updated (Van den Hurk et al 2014). Both global temperature rise and air circulation change were taken into account as steering parameters and used to create four scenarios.…”

Section: Climate Scenarios In the Netherlandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Changes in Groundwater Extractions and Climate Change on Groundwater-Dependent Ecosystems in a Complex Hydrogeological Setting

Engelenburg

Hueting

Rijpkema³

et al. 2017

Water Resour Manage

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Climate change and other future developments can influence the availability of groundwater resources for drinking water. The uncertainty of the projected impact is a challenge given the urgency to decide on adaptation measures to secure the drinking water supply. Improved understanding on how climate change affects the groundwater system is necessary to develop adaptation strategies. AZURE is used, a detailed, well-calibrated hydrological model to study the projected impact of climate change scenarios on the large Veluwe aquifer in the Netherlands. The Veluwe area is an important source of drinking water. However, some existing groundwater extractions in the area affect nearby groundwaterdependent ecosystems. Redistribution of the licensed extraction volumes of these sites is considered to reduce the impact on these ecosystems. The projected impact of climate change and redistribution to groundwater levels is studied. The research shows that in a slowly responding large aquifer the projected climate change may cause rising groundwater levels despite the projected increase in summer dryness. The results indicate that this impact may exceed the impact of redistribution of extraction volumes. In addition, it is shown that the combined effect strongly depends on local conditions, thus highlighting the need for highresolution modelling.

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New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands

Cited by 157 publications

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Effect of local weather on butterfly flight behaviour, movement, and colonization: significance for dispersal under climate change

Effect of local weather on butterfly flight behaviour, movement, and colonization: significance for dispersal under climate change

Is green infrastructure an effective climate adaptation strategy for conserving biodiversity? A case study with the great crested newt

Impact of Changes in Groundwater Extractions and Climate Change on Groundwater-Dependent Ecosystems in a Complex Hydrogeological Setting

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