Objective: To examine the relation of performance on brief cognitive tests to development of clinically diagnosed Alzheimer disease (AD) dementia over the following 18 years in a sample of African Americans and European Americans.Methods: A composite cognitive test score based on tests of episodic memory, executive function, and global cognition was constructed in a prospective population-based sample of 2,125 participants (55% African American and 61% female) aged 65 years and older residing in 4 Chicago neighborhoods. Time before AD dementia diagnosis was categorized into 6 groups corresponding to data collection periods: 0.1-0.9, 1.0-3.9, 4.0-6.9, 7.0-9.9, 10.0-12.9, and 13.0-17.9 years.Results: Of 2,125 participants without clinical AD dementia, 442 (21%) developed clinical AD dementia over 18 years of follow-up. Lower composite cognitive test scores were associated with the development of AD dementia over the duration of the study. The magnitude of association between composite cognitive test score and development of AD dementia increased from an odds ratio of 3.39 (95% confidence interval 1.72, 6.67; p , 0.001) at 13.0-17.9 years to 9.84 (95% confidence interval 7.41, 13.06; p , 0.001) at 0.1-0.9 years, per SD increment. These associations were consistently larger among European Americans than among African Americans. Performance on individual cognitive tests of episodic memory, executive function, and global cognition also significantly predicted the development of AD dementia, with associations exhibiting a similar trend over 18 years. Because of the lack of effective treatments for Alzheimer disease (AD) dementia, early preventive efforts may be more effective in slowing preclinical manifestation of AD dementia.
Conclusions:1,2 As a consequence, the long duration of preclinical AD dementia has been a major point of emphasis.3-5 Although our direct knowledge of the preclinical sequences and interrelations of cognitive and pathologic events are limited, pathologic events are generally thought to begin much earlier than clinical ones.6,7 Imaging-based studies suggest an initial deficiency in limbic regions of the brain affecting episodic memory in the early stages of the disease, 8,9 that progresses to the cortical regions of the brain followed by other cognitive symptoms, and an AD dementia syndrome is noticed. [10][11][12] Much of this knowledge is from investigations confined to clinical settings rather than from the general population.