Neural Network Model Development for Disease Rate Monitoring and Prediction of Antiepidemic Measure Effectiveness

Abstract

There is developed a neural network model for disease rate prediction and assessment of antiepidemic measure effectiveness. As basis of the development there were adopted the existing automated information systems which are used for monitoring and visualization of data on Moscow population disease rate. Under conditions of the emergence and propagation of new dangerous infectious and virus diseases the information processing must be carried out in real time, a prediction for future is required. 
 It is necessary to create, update and adjust rapidly a set of anti-epidemic measures offered. The investigation purpose consists in the prediction of infection spreading and the assessment of anti-epidemic measures based on data on the population disease rate. 
 There is offered a neural network model realized on the basis of the modular computing system and artificial neural networks. A modular computing system includes modules of different types connected between each other with a switch network. 
 In the modular computing system there are included modules of artificial neural networks with the special switch structure. Switchboards allow connecting and disconnecting single modules and elements of neural networks. A neural network model changes dynamically its structure and adapted to a current epidemic situation.

Current approaches to modeling of epidemic process of non-polio Enterovirus infections

“…указывают на необходимость дифференцированных технологий эпидемиологиче-ской диагностики и системы профилактики на территориях с разной интенсивностью эпидемического процесса [9]. Характер динамической кривой ЭВнИ на территории наблюдения сложен и не подчиняется описанию стандартными математическими моделями, что требует применения современных возможностей математического моделирования [10]. Кроме того, в настоящее время преобладает регистрация генерализованных форм и вспышечной заболеваемости, часто в организованных коллективах, другие формы инфекции остаются не диагностированными и не учтёнными.…”