Networks of Violence: Predicting Conflict in Nigeria

Abstract

Civil conflicts are complex: multiple warring parties compete for control of territory both against each other and the government. These processes are often dynamic; changing over time and space. In this study, we embrace these complexities through a network based approach. By considering important relational patterns, such as reciprocity and transitivity, and tying them together with existing theoretical developments in the conflict processes literature, we answer the question of 'who fights whom and when' during civil conflict. Further, using the case of Nigeria, we offer novel theoretical insights about how the entrance of a new, aggressive actor can decisively alter the trajectory of conflict. In addition, we show that our approach is better at predicting 'who fights whom and when' in an out-of-sample context than extant approaches.

Conflict resolution in activist networks: Reflections on prework, power, and engaging with change in Appalachia

“…To date, there are still too few resources available that illuminate how CR practitioners engage with activists in local and regional networks, especially in Appalachia. Similarly, while there has been growing research on CR and networks more broadly (Dorff, Gallop, & Minhas, 2020;Nakamura, Tita, & Krackhardt, 2020;Nan, 2008;Wilson, Davis, & Murdie, 2016), this research rarely looks at conflict interventions with nonviolent activists. Yet, activist networks present an important and complex area for future engagement as they play a critical role in influencing both mass mobilizations as well as sustained long-term work that influences structural change.…”

Forecasting Civil Wars: Theory and Structure in an Age of “Big Data” and Machine Learning

“…In the meantime, our analysis suggests that ICEWS can be used to forecast civil wars with high levels of accuracy, especially when informed by theories of conflict escalation. Several recent studies have introduced innovative methods for modeling dependencies between multiple sets of actors in civil wars and other contexts (Dorff, Gallop, and Minhas 2020;Minhas, Hoff, and Ward 2019); these approaches could plausibly be applied to future iterations of ICEWS, though not in its current form.…”

Networks of Conflict and Cooperation

“…That challenges can be messy also affects how conflict unfolds. In a push to move beyond a conflict dyad approach-an effort also addressed below as it pertains to interstate conflict- Dorff et al (2020) show that a dynamic fighting network where nodes are armed groups and links are battles at a particular time helps to reveal how violence progresses. How two actors fight may depend on whether one fought some third party in the past, or whether a third party will enter in the future.…”