Network-Scale Analysis of Sea-Level Rise Impact on Flexible Pavements

Abstract

This study investigates the potential damage to flexible pavements caused by rising groundwater tables resulting from sea-level rise. A case study was conducted in Miami-Dade County, Southeast Florida, a low-lying area at high risk of inundation and rising groundwater table due to sea-level rise. Flexible pavement specifications are differentiated using functional classification, and the reduced service life for various roadway types due to rising groundwater tables is predicted. The study utilized regional groundwater table maps for future sea-level rise scenarios to identify the saturated unbound layers for each roadway. An improved multilayer linear elastic model incorporating an unsaturated modulus resilient module, capable to handle saturated subgrade to base layer, is employed to quantify pavement response for each classified road at a network scale. The results indicate that the groundwater table response due to sea-level rise will extend further inland, impacting coastal infrastructure and inland areas. This study contributes to a network-scale deterministic pavement model tailored specifically for assessing the impact of sea-level rise on pavement performance. Given the increasing threats posed by sea-level rise, flooding, and infrastructure vulnerability, a comprehensive tool is provided for planners, pavement engineers, and policymakers.