Abstract:This article is devoted to the forecast of the FIFA World Cup 2022 via nested zero-inflated generalized Poisson regression. Our regression model incorporates the Elo points of the participating teams, the location of the matches and the of teamspecific skills in attack and defense as covariates. The proposed model allows predictions in terms of probabilities in order to quantify the chances for each team to reach a certain stage of the tournament. We use Monte Carlo simulations for estimating the outcome of ea… Show more
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