Nest Success Is Not an Adequate Comparative Estimate of Avian Reproduction

Thompson, Bruce C.; Knadle, Gregory E.; Brubaker, Donald L.; Brubaker, Kathleen S.

doi:10.1648/0273-8570-72.4.527

Cited by 80 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Murray (2000) demonstrated that nesting life-history characteristics can affect how nest success translates to nest productivity, or the mean number of fledglings produced per female within a nesting season. Making one or more nesting attempts following a failed attempt (re-nesting) and successfully fledging more than one brood in a season (multi-brooding) can compensate for low nest success (Murray 2000, Thompson et al 2001. In addition, variation in the number of fledglings produced per successful nest can offset variation in nest success.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, nest success, or sometimes nest productivity, remains as the reproductive parameter used to model population growth (e.g., Podolsky et al 2007), determine source-sink dynamics (e.g., Donovan et al 1995), compare habitat quality (e.g., Weinberg and Roth 1998), and identify effects of human activities on songbird populations (e.g., Manolis et al 2002). Furthermore, despite the advantages of nest productivity over nest success as a measure of reproductive output, nest success remains the most commonly reported comparative estimate of this important parameter (Thompson et al 2001). Generally, when songbird nest success is low, habitat quality is described as low (e.g., Trine 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Seasonal productivity in a population of migratory songbirds: why nest data are not enough

Streby

Andersen

2011

Ecosphere

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Citation: Streby, H. M., and D. E. Andersen. 2011. Seasonal productivity in a population of migratory songbirds: why nest data are not enough. Ecosphere 2(7):art78. doi:10.1890/ES10-00187.1Abstract. Population models for many animals are limited by a lack of information regarding juvenile survival. In particular, studies of songbird reproductive output typically terminate with the success or failure of nests, despite the fact that adults spend the rest of the reproductive season rearing dependent fledglings. Unless fledgling survival does not vary, or varies consistently with nest productivity, conclusions about population dynamics based solely on nest data may be misleading. During 2007 and 2008, we monitored nests and used radio telemetry to monitor fledgling survival for a population of Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapilla) in a managed-forest landscape in north-central Minnesota, USA. In addition to estimating nest and fledgling survival, we modeled growth for population segments partitioned by proximity to edges of non-nesting cover types (regenerating clearcuts). Nest survival was significantly lower, but fledgling survival was significantly higher, in 2007 than in 2008. Despite higher nest productivity in 2008, seasonal productivity (number of young surviving to independence per breeding female) was higher in 2007. Proximity to clearcut edge did not affect nest productivity. However, fledglings from nests near regenerating sapling-dominated clearcuts (7-20 years since harvest) had higher daily survival (0.992 6 0.005) than those from nests in interior forest (0.978 6 0.006), which in turn had higher daily survival than fledglings from nests near shrub-dominated clearcuts ( 6 years since harvest; 0.927 6 0.030) in 2007, with a similar but statistically non-significant trend in 2008. Our population growth models predicted growth rates that differed by 2-39% (x ¼ 25%) from simpler models in which we replaced our estimates of first-year survival with one-half adult annual survival (an estimate commonly used in songbird population growth models). We conclude that nest productivity is an inadequate measure of songbird seasonal productivity, and that results based exclusively on nest data can yield misleading conclusions about population growth and clearcut edge effects. We suggest that direct estimates of juvenile survival could provide more accurate information for the management and conservation of many animal taxa.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal productivity in a population of migratory songbirds: why nest data are not enough

Streby

Andersen

2011

Ecosphere

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“…In a recent review, Thompson et al [1] showed that the avian literature poorly distinguishes between nesting success and annual reproductive success, and that most researchers do not account for renesting or multiple-brooding when they interpret nest success levels. Our results illustrate that specific annual fecundity rates can be produced by many different levels of season-long nest success, and conversely, that a specific level of season-long nest success can produce a wide range of possible annual fecundity rates.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Aside from distribution measures, nest success (often called nest survival) is one of the most widely reported metrics in articles describing breeding bird biology, and is typically measured by monitoring the fates of nests throughout a breeding season [1]. Methods for estimating nest success have gained much attention in recent decades.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In most cases, estimation of F requires at least some portion of the breeding population be individually marked and subsequently monitored throughout the breeding season. Perhaps due to the "ease" of estimating nest success compared to annual fecundity, a recent review of 356 articles reporting productivity estimators found that 54% reported nest success rates, while only 10% reported annual fecundity rates [1].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting Annual Fecundity from Nest Success

Donovan¹,

Danforth²,

Shustack³

2008

TOOENIJ

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Nest success, the probability that a nest will fledge offspring, is a widely measured parameter in ornithological studies, and is usually estimated by monitoring the fates of nests throughout a breeding season. Because nest success estimates are commonly reported in the avian literature, a key question in population studies is how to derive annual fecundity rates, F (a vital parameter in population biology), from nest success data when breeding individuals are not marked. In this manuscript, we describe a simple, recursive model that generates an estimate of the frequency distribution of annual fecundity rates that can be achieved for a species, given precise and unbiased estimates of nest success, the average number of young that fledge per successful nest, and three life history parameters: the maximum number of possible successful broods per breeding season (J), the maximum number of possible nesting attempts per breeding season (K), and the maximum brood size (B). We illustrate the model for 3 hypothetical species in which the average young that fledge per successful nest is 2 offspring: (1) a single-brooded species in which J =1, K = 3, B = 3; (2) a double-brooded species in which J = 2, K = 3, B = 3, and (3) a triple-brooded species in which J =3, K = 3, B = 3. In general, the frequency distributions of acceptable fecundity solutions for single-, double-, and triple-brooded species are all approximately symmetric, and are defined by F ave (the average acceptable solution), F min (the minimum acceptable solution), and F max (the maximum acceptable solution). The "breadth" of these distributions, or the difference between F min and F max , appears to be controlled largely by solutions where an unequal number of young fledge across attempts. However, when examining relationships between annual fecundity and nest success across the full spectrum of nest success values, we find that, more often than not, non-linear relationships characterized the association between nest success, F max , F min , and F ave . The only case where nest success predicts annual fecundity in a linear fashion occurred when J = K. Thus, the assumption that nest success is an adequate indicator of annual fecundity should be viewed with caution.

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