Neighborhood-Based Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing NCAR WRF Model Simulations and the Operational NAM

Clark, Adam J.; Gallus, William A.; Weisman, Morris L.

doi:10.1175/2010waf2222404.1

Cited by 131 publications

(88 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…One of the well known problems related to grid-spacing decrease is associated with slight displacement errors, which often result in double penalties, creating difficulties to assess the true quality of high resolution simulations (Clark et al, 2010). Many studies have been focused on the verification practices; for example, Casati et al (2008) presented a review of the forecast verification procedures, related to spatial verification methods, probabilistic forecasts and ensemble verification.…”

Section: Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of intense rainfall events on Madeira Island during the 2009/2010 winter

Couto¹,

Salgado

Costa

2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper constitutes a step towards the understanding of some characteristics associated with high rainfall amounts and flooding on Madeira Island. The high precipitation events that occurred during the winter of 2009/2010 have been considered with three main goals: to analyze the main atmospheric characteristics associated with the events; to expand the understanding of the interaction between the island and the atmospheric circulations, mainly the effects of the island on the generation or intensification of orographic precipitation; and to evaluate the performance of high resolution numerical modeling in simulating and forecasting heavy precipitation events over the island. The MESO-NH model with a horizontal resolution of 1 km is used, as well as rain gauge data, synoptic charts and measurements of precipitable water obtained from the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS). The results confirm the influence of the orographic effects on precipitation over Madeira as well as the tropical-extratropical interaction, since atmospheric rivers were detected in six out of the seven cases analyzed, acting as a low level moisture supplier, which together with the orographic lifting induced the high rainfall amounts. Only in one of the cases the presence of a low pressure system was identified over the archipelago.

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Section: Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of intense rainfall events on Madeira Island during the 2009/2010 winter

Couto¹,

Salgado

Costa

2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Useful verification and evaluation of convectionallowing models 1 requires ''nontraditional'' approaches that do not rely on point-to-point matches of forecast and observed fields (e.g., Roberts and Lean 2008;Casati et al 2008;Clark et al 2010, and many others). These nontraditional approaches are needed because, as grid resolution increases, the time scales at which very accurate predictability is possible on the grid scale become very short (e.g., Lorenz 1969).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…MODE has also been used to evaluate convectionallowing forecasts generated by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) in support of the 2009 and 2010 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Hazardous Weather Testbed (NOAA/ HWT) Spring Forecasting Experiments (Kain et al 2010a;Jensen et al 2010;Clark et al 2012a). Simply overlaying forecast and observed reflectivity objects defined by MODE revealed that forecasts without radar-dataassimilation frequently contained MCSs with an upstream lag relative to forecasts with radar-data-assimilation during the first 0-6 h of the forecasts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In fact, several recent studies have demonstrated useful applications of MODE-TD concepts in convection-allowing forecasts. For example, Clark et al (2012bClark et al ( , 2013 identified time-domain objects in convection-allowing ensemble forecasts of hourly maximum updraft helicity (UH), a diagnostic for measuring rotation in simulated storms (Kain et al 2008(Kain et al , 2010b, and found that the total length of forecast UH objects was strongly related to the total pathlength of observed tornadoes over 12-30-h forecast periods. Also, Miller and Correia (2012) and Kain et al (2013) applied a technique for identifying forecast and observed convective initiation, which was defined as the local time minima within time-domain objects of simulated reflectivity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The purpose of this study is to apply a beta version of MODE-TD to a set of convection-allowing precipitation forecasts generated during spring 2010 by CAPS in support of the 2010 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment (SFE2010; Clark et al 2012a). The forecasts are composed of four members of the Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF) system Kong et al 2010) identically configured except for their microphysics parameterization.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Application of Object-Based Time-Domain Diagnostics for Tracking Precipitation Systems in Convection-Allowing Models

Clark

Bullock²,

Jensen³

et al. 2014

Weather and Forecasting

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Meaningful verification and evaluation of convection-allowing models requires approaches that do not rely on point-to-point matches of forecast and observed fields. In this study, one such approach-a beta version of the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) that incorporates the time dimension [known as MODE time-domain (MODE-TD)]-was applied to 30-h precipitation forecasts from four 4-km grid-spacing members of the 2010 Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast system with different microphysics parameterizations. Including time in MODE-TD provides information on rainfall system evolution like lifetime, timing of initiation and dissipation, and translation.The simulations depicted the spatial distribution of time-domain precipitation objects across the United States quite well. However, all simulations overpredicted the number of objects, with the Thompson microphysics scheme overpredicting the most and the Morrison method the least. For the smallest smoothing radius and rainfall threshold used to define objects [8 km and 0.10 in. (1 in. 5 2.54 cm), respectively], the most common object duration was 3 h in both models and observations. With an increased smoothing radius and rainfall threshold, the most common duration became shorter. The simulations depicted the diurnal cycle of object frequencies well, but overpredicted object frequencies uniformly across all forecast hours. The simulations had spurious maxima in initiating objects at the beginning of the forecast and a corresponding spurious maximum in dissipating objects slightly later. Examining average object velocities, a slow bias was found in the simulations, which was most pronounced in the Thompson member. These findings should aid users and developers of convection-allowing models and motivate future work utilizing time-domain methods for verifying high-resolution forecasts.

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Precipitation From a Multiyear Database of Convection‐Allowing WRF Simulations

Goines

Kennedy

2018

JGR Atmospheres

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Convection‐allowing models (CAMs) have become frequently used for operational forecasting and, more recently, have been utilized for general circulation model downscaling. CAM forecasts have typically been analyzed for a few case studies or over short time periods, but this limits the ability to judge the overall skill of deterministic simulations. Analysis over long time periods can yield a better understanding of systematic model error. Four years of warm season (April–August, 2010–2013)‐simulated precipitation has been accumulated from two Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models with 4 km grid spacing. The simulations were provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), each with different dynamic cores and parameterization schemes. These simulations are evaluated against the NCEP Stage‐IV precipitation data set with similar 4 km grid spacing. The spatial distribution and diurnal cycle of precipitation in the central United States are analyzed using Hovmöller diagrams, grid point correlations, and traditional verification skill scoring (i.e., ETS; Equitable Threat Score). Although NCEP‐WRF had a high positive error in total precipitation, spatial characteristics were similar to observations. For example, the spatial distribution of NCEP‐WRF precipitation correlated better than NSSL‐WRF for the Northern Plains. Hovmöller results exposed a delay in initiation and decay of diurnal precipitation by NCEP‐WRF while both models had difficulty in reproducing the timing and location of propagating precipitation. ETS was highest for NSSL‐WRF in all domains at all times. ETS was also higher in areas of propagating precipitation compared to areas of unorganized diurnal scattered precipitation. Monthly analysis identified unique differences between the two models in their abilities to correctly simulate the spatial distribution and zonal motion of precipitation through the warm season.

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Neighborhood-Based Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing NCAR WRF Model Simulations and the Operational NAM

Cited by 131 publications

References 55 publications

Analysis of intense rainfall events on Madeira Island during the 2009/2010 winter

Analysis of intense rainfall events on Madeira Island during the 2009/2010 winter

Application of Object-Based Time-Domain Diagnostics for Tracking Precipitation Systems in Convection-Allowing Models

Precipitation From a Multiyear Database of Convection‐Allowing WRF Simulations

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