Near-universal marriage, early childbearing, and low fertility: India’s alternative fertility transition

Abstract

OBJECTIVE To compare fertility in India to both low-to-middle-income and high-income countries (LMICs and HICs) and describe the patterns that have accompanied India’s transition to low fertility. METHODS We use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), the United Nations (UN), and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to observe factors associated with fertility decline in 36 Indian states and 76 countries. RESULTS Although fertility in India has declined to levels similar to HICs, women’s entry into marriage and initiation of childbearing are more in line with patterns found in LMICs. The vast majority of women in India (97%) are married by age 30, and their average age at first birth is only 21.3 years old. In spite of these patterns, average fertility has declined in India as a result of earlier termination of childbearing. Among more recent cohorts, fewer women progressed to higher-order births and about half of women obtained a sterilization by age 35. CONCLUSIONS India has reached low fertility by mechanisms outside the traditional indicators of fertility decline. In contrast to countries that have achieved low fertility through delayed age at first birth, women in India have continued to enter unions and bear children early, lowered their age at last birth, and increasingly ended their fertility via sterilization following the birth of two children. CONTRIBUTION Evidence from India reveals an alternative pathway to low fertility, highlighting the limitations of traditional socioeconomic indicators for explaining fertility decline.

Long-term population projections: Scenarios of low or rebounding fertility

“…Although fertility decline in high-income countries has been accompanied by a delay in childbearing, not all countries that have below-replacement fertility have undergone the same transition in the age-profile of fertility. For example, India’s TFR is now 2.0 births per woman, yet women continue to begin childbearing at young ages [ 6 ], a pattern which is in stark contrast to what has occurred in high-income countries.…”

“…Although fertility decline in many countries has been accompanied by a delay in childbearing, there is precedence for countries reaching low fertility yet maintaining different age-patterns of fertility. For example, India’s TFR is now 2.0 births per woman, yet women continue to begin childbearing at young ages [ 6 ], a pattern which is in stark contrast to what has occurred in high-income countries. S2 Fig shows scenarios for age-specific fertility rates globally and for selected countries.…”

“…In many countries, women's pursuit of higher education and participation in the labor force led to delays in marriage and childbearing that contributed to fertility decline [4,5]. However, in some countries, like India, fertility has declined to sub-replacement levels despite women having children at young ages [6] and low female labor force participation [7]. In these countries, parents' desire to invest more in the human capital of fewer children may partially explain fertility decline [8].…”