Near-term regional climate change over Bangladesh

Abstract

Bangladesh stands out as a climate change hot spot due to its unique geography, climate, high population density, and limited adaptation capacity. Mounting evidence suggests that the country is already suffering from the effects of climate change which may get worse without aggressive action. Here, we use an ensemble of high-resolution (10 km) regional climate model simulations to project near-term change in climate extremes, mainly heat waves and intense rainfall, for the period (2021–2050). Near-term climate projections represent a valuable input for designing sound adaptation policies. Our climate projections suggest that heatwaves will become more frequent and severe in Bangladesh under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). In particular, extremes of wet-bulb temperature (a temperature and humidity metric important in evaluating humid heat stress) in the western part of Bangladesh including Bogra, Ishurdi, and Jessore are likely to exceed the extreme danger threshold (according to U.S. National Weather Service criterion), which has rarely been observed in the current climate. The return periods of extreme heat waves are also significantly shortened across the country. In addition, country-averaged rainfall is projected to increase by about 6% during the summer months, with the largest increases (above 10%) in the eastern mountainous areas, such as Sylhet and Chittagong. Meanwhile, insignificant changes in extreme rainfall are simulated. Our results suggest that Bangladesh is particularly susceptible to climate extremes in the near future, in the form of extreme heat waves over the western part of the country.

Near-term regional climate change in East Africa

“…To quantify level of human exposure to extreme heat, the categories of heat stress, defined by the US National Weather Service (USNWS), are applied. Note that a wet-bulb temperature of 31 ℃, sustained for 6 h, is assumed for an extreme danger threshold of humid heat stress for various regions (Im et al 2017a;Im et al 2018;Choi et al 2021).…”

Heat Stress During Arba’een Foot‐Pilgrimage (World’s Largest Gathering) Projected to Reach “Dangerous” Levels Due To Climate Change

“…To eliminate systematic biases in the GCM and MRCM outputs, we applied the equidistant quantile‐mapping bias correction procedure under the assumption that the bias does not change over time, following the previous studies (Choi et al., 2021; Li et al., 2010). The ERA5 data is used to correct the bias in simulated T and TW at Basra, Najaf, and Karbala in Iraq.…”

“…When ambient humidity is high, evaporative and conductive cooling does not occur efficiently, making it difficult to dissipate metabolic heat from the human body, which can cause heat stress (Sherwood & Huber, 2010). Therefore, heat stress is not just caused by extreme temperature but is strongly regulated by a combined measure of temperature and humidity (i.e., wet‐bulb temperature; TW) (Choi et al., 2021; Im, Choi, & Ahn, 2017; Im et al., 2018; Kang & Eltahir, 2018; Pal & Eltahir, 2016; Raymond et al., 2020). An extreme TW could result in hyperthermia (Sherwood & Huber, 2010), possibly causing heat‐related morbidity and mortality during mass gathering events (Kang et al., 2019; Saeed et al., 2021).…”

Aquaponics as a Promising Strategy to Mitigate Impacts of Climate Change on Rainbow Trout Culture

“…On the contrary, in the northern part of the Mediterranean, extreme winter temperatures ranging between 10 °C and -20 °C are often observed [ 64 , 65 , 66 ]. In recent decades, there have been extreme heat waves in Bangladesh due to climate change and global warming [ 67 , 68 ]. In addition, there is an extreme rise in temperature in Vietnam, Australia, and Hawaii [ 69 , 70 , 71 ].…”