Near-term impact of climate variability on yam rot incidence over a humid tropical region: projections in CORDEX-Africa scenarios

Abstract

The global population is projected to be enormous by the mid-21st century, whereas, most essential crops being sustained by the rain-fed agriculture are threatened by climate change. Therefore, the study investigated the projected near-future effect of rainfall variability on rot incidence and yam production in humid tropical Nigeria. Production data from the Food and Agriculture Organization and the Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics showed the significant increasing trend in the annual yam output. The field survey conducted in 2018 showed that the maximum percentage of rot incidence occurred in July. Climate Research Unit observational rainfall data from 1979 to 2018 showed the nonsignificant trend in the interannual rainfall variability; however, it showed low variability and a significant decreasing trend in the July rainfall. A pathogenicity test on yam samples confirmed rot by fungi, bacteria and nematodes as virulent pathogens, whereas, the nutritional qualities of the rotted yams were indicated. Monthly rainfall and rot incidence showed positive correlation (r = 0.84, significant at 99% from t-test). The positive characteristic impact values indicated that increase (decrease) in the monthly rainfall corresponds to increase (decrease) in the magnitude of monthly percentage rot incidence. Thus, the significantly decreasing rainfall reduced the quantity of rot incidence and consequently increased the annual yam production for the period. Selected CoOrdinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment-Africa models and the ensemble mean showed a good measure of agreement with observational rainfall in the historical experiments. The efficiencies of the bias-corrected outputs in the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 indicated improved ‘reasonable’ performances. Bias-corrected projections of the July rainfall showed an increasing trend in both the RCPs, which indicate a potential increase in rot incidence and the consequent decline in annual yam production. The findings are imperative in sustaining the global food supply.