Near-Earth asteroid 2012 TC4 observing campaign: Results from a global planetary defense exercise

Reddy, V.; Kelley, Michael S. P.; Farnocchia, Davide; Ryan, W. H.; Thomas, C. A.; Benner, L. A. M.; Dotson, Jessie L.; Micheli, M.; Brucker, M. J.; Bus, S. J.; Brozović, M.; Wheeler, Lorien; Abbasi, Viqar; Bauer, J. M.; Bonsall, Amber; Brown, Zarah; Busch, Michael W.; Chodas, P. W.; Choi, Young Jun; Erasmus, N.; Fast, K. E.; Faucher, John P.; Fernandes, Rachel B.; Ghigo, F. D.; Gilbank, David; Giorgini, Jon D.; Gustafsson, Annika; Hainaut, Olivier; Harris, Walter M.; Jao, Joseph S.; Johnson, Lindley; Kareta, Theodore; Kim, Myung Jin; Koschny, D.; Kramer, Emily; Landis, Rob; Laurin, Denis; Larsen, Jeffrey A.; Lee, Clement G.; Lejoly, Cassandra; Lister, Tim; McMillan, R. S.; Masiero, J.; Mathias, Donovan; Mommert, Michael; Moon, H. K.; Moskovitz, Nicholas; Naidu, Shantanu P.; Nallapu, Ravi Teja; Niazi, Haris Khan; Noonan, John; Polishook, David; Ryan, E. V.; Schatz, Lauren; Scotti, J. V.; Sharkey, Benjamin; Шустов, Б. М.; Sickafoose, Amanda A.; Silva, Marc A.; Slade, M. A.; Slick, Lindsay R.; Snedeker, L. G.; Springmann, A.; Tholen, David J.; Trilling, David E.; Vodniza, A. Q.; Wainscoat, R. J.; Weryk, Robert; Yoshikawa, Makoto

doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2019.02.018

Cited by 23 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Determination of the spectral class is used to infer whether the object may be rocky, metallic, anhydrous, or hydrous, and helps to link the object to meteorite analogs, which in turn constrain its density and mass. Spectral classification provides important information that feeds into the hazard models, which can be used to identify which objects are of interest and those that represent little to no danger (Reddy et al, 2019). In addition, any observational evidence to suggest that a potentially hazardous NEO may be a system of more than one object is also important to consider when trying to assess impact hazards given that a significant fraction of NEOs (about 1 in 6 larger than 200 m in diameter) exist in binary or ternary systems (Nolan et al, 2020;Virkki et al, 2020).…”

Section: Properties For Assessing Impact Threatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… Develop and launch in situ spacecraft missions to place previously obtained remote sensing measurements in context, and provide detailed characterization for NEO properties of interest that cannot be achieved from ground-based or space-based remote sensing (e.g., flyby tours of NEOs, rendezvous missions with assets for physical interaction, etc.).  Hold additional exercises for early detection, characterization, and rapid assessment of potentially hazardous NEOs to test implementation of planetary defense protocols (e.g., International Asteroid Warning Network global observing campaigns for 2012 TC4 and 66391 Moshup) (Reddy et al, 2019).  Execute a rapid reconnaissance in situ mission (flyby or rendezvous) to a potentially hazardous NEO to demonstrate capabilities for planetary defense readiness (e.g., 99942 Apophis) .…”

Section: Recommended Activities To Improve Planetary Defense Readinessmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Near-Earth Object Characterization Priorities and Considerations for Planetary Defense

Abell

Raymond

Daly

et al. 2021

Bulletin of the AAS

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Section: Properties For Assessing Impact Threatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Recommended Activities To Improve Planetary Defense Readinessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near-Earth Object Characterization Priorities and Considerations for Planetary Defense

Abell

Raymond

Daly

et al. 2021

Bulletin of the AAS

Self Cite

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“…Spoto et al (2014) addressed this issue by identifying a scattering encounter, finding the weak direction on the b-plane (Farnocchia et al 2019), and then mapping it back to the space of initial conditions and nongravitational parameters. Given these limitations, MC sampling is still the preferred option for estimating the impact probability of asteroids subject to nongravitational accelerations (Farnocchia et al 2013a;Farnocchia et al 2017;Reddy et al 2019). Other known issues of the LOV include its possible indeterminacy for orbits determined from very short arcs, and certain pathological cases where the LOV may have such a complicated geometry on the b-plane that interpolating between virtual asteroids may not identify all possible impactors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A novel approach to asteroid impact monitoring and hazard assessment

Roa¹,

Farnocchia²,

Chesley³

2021

Preprint

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Orbit-determination programs find the orbit solution that best fits a set of observations by minimizing the RMS of the residuals of the fit. For near-Earth asteroids, the uncertainty of the orbit solution may be compatible with trajectories that impact Earth. This paper shows how incorporating the impact condition as an observation in the orbit-determination process results in a robust technique for finding the regions in parameter space leading to impacts. The impact pseudo-observation residuals are the b-plane coordinates at the time of close approach and the uncertainty is set to a fraction of the Earth radius. The extended orbit-determination filter converges naturally to an impacting solution if allowed by the observations. The uncertainty of the resulting orbit provides an excellent geometric representation of the virtual impactor. As a result, the impact probability can be efficiently estimated by exploring this region in parameter space using importance sampling. The proposed technique can systematically handle a large number of estimated parameters, account for nongravitational forces, deal with nonlinearities, and correct for non-Gaussian initial uncertainty distributions. The algorithm has been implemented into a new impact monitoring system at JPL called Sentry-II, which is undergoing extensive testing. The main advantages of Sentry-II over JPL's currently operating impact monitoring system Sentry are that Sentry-II can systematically process orbits perturbed by nongravitational forces and that it is generally more robust when dealing with pathological cases. The runtimes and completeness of both systems are comparable, with the impact probability of Sentry-II for 99% completeness being 3 × 10 −7 .

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“…Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) represent one of the most challenging and interesting mission targets of the next decades of Solar System exploration. The three main reasons behind this deep interest are related to scientific exploration, planetary protection, and insitu resources exploitation [1,2]. All the major space agencies worldwide have shown a significant interest towards NEAs (and small bodies in general), testified by many under development or successfully flown missions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Novel 3U Stand-Alone CubeSat Architecture for Autonomous Near Earth Asteroid Fly-By

Casini

Fodde

Monna³

et al. 2020

Aerospace

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The purpose of this work is to present a novel CubeSat architecture, aimed to explore Near Earth Asteroids. The fast growth in small satellite commercial-off-the-shelf technologies, which characterized the last decade of space industry, is exploited to design a 3U CubeSat able to provide a basic scientific return sufficient to improve the target asteroid dataset. An overview of the current available technologies for each subsystem is presented, followed by a component selection driven by the mission constraints. First a typical asteroid fly-by mission is introduced together with the system and performance requirements. Then each characterizing subsystem is critically analyzed, and the proposed configuration is presented, showing the mission feasibility within only 3.9 kg of wet mass and 385 m/s of total ΔV.

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Near-Earth asteroid 2012 TC4 observing campaign: Results from a global planetary defense exercise

Cited by 23 publications

References 22 publications

Near-Earth Object Characterization Priorities and Considerations for Planetary Defense

Near-Earth Object Characterization Priorities and Considerations for Planetary Defense

A novel approach to asteroid impact monitoring and hazard assessment

Novel 3U Stand-Alone CubeSat Architecture for Autonomous Near Earth Asteroid Fly-By

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