NDVI Predicts Birth Seasonality in Historical Baja California Sur, Mexico

Abstract

Birth seasonality is a phenomenon whereby populations can be characterized by a single month or season in which births peak. While non-human animal research suggests seasonal birth-pulses are related to variation in climate and local energy availability, social scientists debate the mechanisms responsible for it in humans. Here we investigate the role of precipitation, temperature, and energy availability on seasonal birth pulses using a historical dataset from the Baja California peninsula -a hot, arid desert that experiences seasonal fluctuations in temperature, precipitation, and energy associated with the North American Monsoonal. Analyses suggest that local energy availability (as measured through NDVI) predicts seasonal birth pulses, while temperature and precipitation do not; however, both are indirectly related to it through their direct effects on NDVI. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of local energy availability on human reproductive timing and suggest that human birth seasonality is a form of traditional ecological knowledge.