NDSHA - The New Paradigm for RSHA - An Updated Review

Abstract

A New Paradigm (data driven and not like the currently model driven) is needed for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment RSHA. Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) integrates earthquake geology, earthquake science, and particularly earthquake physics to finally achieve a New (and needed) Paradigm for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment RSHA.Although observations from many recent destructive earthquakes have all confirmed the validity of NDSHA’s approach and application to earthquake hazard forecasting-nonetheless damaging earthquakes still cannot yet be predicted with a precision requirement consistent with issuing a red alert and evacuation order to protect civil populations. However, intermediate-term (time scale) and middle-range (space scale) predictions of main shocks above a pre-assigned threshold may be properly used for the implementation of low-key preventive safety actions, as recommended by UNESCO in 1997. Furthermore, a proper integration of both seismological and geodetic information has been shown to also reliably contribute to a reduction of the geographic extent of alarms and it therefore defines a New Paradigm for TimeDependent Hazard Scenarios: Intermediate-Term (time scale) and Narrow-Range (space scale) Earthquake Prediction.

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard maps of Kosovo

“…NDSHA has been described in numerous previous studies (NDSHA, Panza et al, 2001;2012;Panza and Bela, 2020;Bela and Panza, 2021;Panza et al, 2021), which detail the theoretical framework and computational workflow. Here, we summarize the main steps and describe the specific input data used in this study.…”

“…Left: tectonic setting of Kosovo (red square), after Burchfiel et al, (2008); right: seismicity of the study area from the SHEEC catalogue (M W ≥5). For color code, please refer to the digital version of the paper In this study, we present seismic hazard maps generated using the well-established Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) methodology (Panza et al, 2001;2012;Panza and Bela, 2020;Bela and Panza, 2021;Panza et al, 2021).…”

The utility of the enhancement techniques for mapping subsurface structures from gravity data

“…Another edge detection filter based on the ratio of the derivatives of the THG, was proposed by for improving the resolution of results, called the logistic function of the total horizontal gradient, which is given by [53]: (4) where and α is a constant that is decided by the researcher. This constant controls the effectiveness of the method.…”

“…Geophysical methods have been used for many years in the determination of nature and processes of the Earth [1][2][3][4][5][6][7], and gravity method is one of the oldest methods used to solve this problem [8,9]. Despite the development of an increasing number of additional exploration techniques, some of which can determine geological structures with higher resolution, the gravity method has continued to be an important and sometimes crucial constraint in a wide variety of terrestrial investigations [8][9][10].…”

Earth’s gradients as the engine of plate tectonics and earthquakes

“…Among the consequences of the widespread idea, albeit unsophisticated, of elastic stress accumulation as the driver of seismic processes are the concept of "seismic cycle" [238,239], "typical earthquake" [240,241] and the seismic gap hypothesis [242,243]. For an alternative critical evaluation of these concepts, see [244]. The first one is an appealing framework concerning temporal distribution of seismicity within sufficiently localized bounded regions in which earthquakes are expected to occur after a period of stress increase due to tectonic forces, once the stress drop has happened, weakening processes are also responsible of a post-seismic phase in which minor events, i.e., aftershocks, are recorded before reaching a new state of mechanical stability.…”