Navigating uncertainty

Macdonald, Helen

doi:10.1136/bmj.j2524

Cited by 2 publications

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“…I think that one of the most difficult but important of current challenges for a society awash with data is to understand fully how decision makers handle uncertainty: : : because I do not think that they use decision theory, however much some of our colleagues might wish otherwise. In this context, I find encouragement in a recent editorial piece in the British Medical Journal (Macdonald, 2017) in which Helen Macdonald advocates that 'Doctors need to be able to discuss degrees of certainty, including numbers, with their patients'. Both in his address tonight and more generally in his superb work as the Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk, David shows that he is very much a President for our times.…”

Section: Vote Of Thanksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trust in Numbers

Spiegelhalter

2017

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society

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Summary Those who value quantitative and scientific evidence are faced with claims both of a reproducibility crisis in scientific publication and of a post‐truth society abounding in fake news and alternative facts. Both issues are of vital importance to statisticians, and both are deeply concerned with trust in expertise. By considering the ‘pipelines’ through which scientific and political evidence is propagated, I consider possible ways of improving both the trustworthiness of the statistical evidence being communicated, and the ability of audiences to assess the quality and reliability of what they are being told.

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Section: Vote Of Thanksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trust in Numbers

Spiegelhalter

2017

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society

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Back to Basics: Overdiagnosis Is About Unwarranted Diagnosis

Hofmann

2019

American Journal of Epidemiology

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Epidemiologic studies of overdiagnosis are challenged by unclear definitions and the absence of unified measures. This spurs great controversies. Etymologically, overdiagnosis means too much diagnosis and stems from the inability to distinguish what is important from what is not. Accordingly, in order to grasp, measure, and handle overdiagnosis, we should revive medicine’s original goal and reconnect diagnosis to what matters to professionals and patients: knowledge and suffering, respectively. This will make overdiagnosis easier to define and measure, and eventually less difficult to reduce.

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Navigating uncertainty

Cited by 2 publications

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Trust in Numbers

Trust in Numbers

Back to Basics: Overdiagnosis Is About Unwarranted Diagnosis

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