Navigating the Devious Course of Evolution: The Importance of Mechanistic Models for Identifying Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics in Nature

Abstract

JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.. abstract: In proposing his genetic feedback mechanism, David Pimentel was one of the first biologists to argue that the reciprocal interplay of ecological and evolutionary dynamics is an important process regulating population dynamics and ultimately affecting community composition. Although the past decade has seen an increase in research activity on these so-called eco-evolutionary dynamics, there remains a conspicuous lack of compelling natural examples of such feedback. Here we argue that this lack may be due to an inherent difficulty in detecting eco-evolutionary dynamics in nature. By examining models of virulence evolution, host resistance evolution, and antigenic evolution, we show that the influence of evolution on ecological dynamics can often be obscured by other ecological processes that yield similar dynamics. We then show, however, that mechanistic models can be used to navigate this, in Pimentel's words, "devious" course of evolution when effectively combined with empirical data. We argue that these models, improving upon Pimentel's original mathematical models, will therefore play an increasingly important role in identifying more subtle, but possibly ubiquitous, eco-evolutionary dynamics in nature. To highlight the importance of identifying these potentially subtle dynamics in nature, we end by considering our ability to anticipate the effect of population control strategies in the presence of these eco-evolutionary feedbacks.

Eco‐evolutionary feedbacks—Theoretical models and perspectives

“…Host–parasite interactions are often characterized by overlapping time scales between epidemiological and evolutionary processes owing to the rapid evolution of those systems. Yet, even when evolution is slower than the spread of disease, selection in host–parasite systems is characterized by strong density‐dependent feedbacks, where changes in densities affect selection pressures on transmission, virulence and other parasite traits (eco‐to‐evo), and the resulting trait changes in turn alter the ecological dynamics (evo‐to‐eco; Luo & Koelle, ; Figure c).…”

Spatial eco-evolutionary feedback in plant-pathogen interactions

“…Given the detailed and long-term studies available, pathologists are in an excellent position to further advance the study of eco-evolutionary feedbacks in wild systems. From an applied perspective, an increased understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics may, as envisioned by Pimentel 45 years ago (1968; see also Luo & Koelle, 2013), be crucial for improvement of integrated control strategies. …”

Reticulate Evolution

“…Haldane has proposed, as early as in the 1940s, that disease was an important evolutionary force (Haldane 1949), and important developments have been made over the last decades, such as the modeling of reciprocal interactions between evolution and ecology (Reznick 2013;Luo and Koelle 2013), the application of models to fast-mutating viruses such as HIV (Perelson 2002), and integration of population genetic frameworks into the study of transmission dynamics (Grenfell et al 2004;Wakeley 2005;Wakeley and Sargsyan 2009). Haldane has proposed, as early as in the 1940s, that disease was an important evolutionary force (Haldane 1949), and important developments have been made over the last decades, such as the modeling of reciprocal interactions between evolution and ecology (Reznick 2013;Luo and Koelle 2013), the application of models to fast-mutating viruses such as HIV (Perelson 2002), and integration of population genetic frameworks into the study of transmission dynamics (Grenfell et al 2004;Wakeley 2005;Wakeley and Sargsyan 2009).…”