Nature protection across countries: Do size and power matter?

Abstract

9Protected areas are one of the most effective tools for nature conservation. 10Consequently, almost all countries have agreed to set increasingly demanding goals for 11 the expansion of their protected area systems. However, there is a large disparity among 12 countries, and research on the cultural drivers of differences remains quite unexplored. 13Here, we explore the relationship between protected extent and a limited spectrum of 14 socio-economic characteristics, making focus on size and power features. Protected 15 areas under strict conservation categories (I to IV, IUCN) were considered for 195 16 countries, and relationships were modeled by means of LOESS regressions, violin plots, 17 and a random forest ensemble learning method. Larger and more powerful countries (in 18 terms of land area, gross domestic product, or military expenditure) protect less and in 19 relatively smaller units than smaller and less powerful countries. Out of the twenty most 20 extensive countries of the world, only two exceed 10% of protection. This situation is 21 problematic since an effective growth of the global protected area network depends on 22 the willingness of larger and more powerful countries. We propose different hypotheses 23 a posteriori that explain the role of size and power driving protection. These hypotheses 24 involve direct mechanisms (e.g., the persuasive capacity of large countries) or 25 mechanisms that mediate the interactions of some others (e.g., tourism contribution to 26 GDP and insularity). Independently of mechanisms, our results emphasize the 27