Nature-based solutions for flood risk reduction: A probabilistic modeling framework

Lallemant, David; Hamel, Perrine; Balbi, Mariano; Lim, Tian Ning; Schmitt, Rafael; Win, Shelly

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2021.08.010

Cited by 27 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 53 publications

(81 reference statements)

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“…Pakistan's system of major reservoir and levees is apparently not adequate to eliminate flood damage (though it might have reduced them), particularly because a lot of flooding was caused by extreme precipitation close to the flooded areas [30]. Strengthening existing flood protection, improving local drainage, and increasing infiltration through reforestation and other nature-based solutions [17] might contribute to reduce flood hazards, but it should not be considered in isolation while overlooking opportunities to combine reconstruction and adaptation to decrease exposure to future floods.…”

Section: Discussion and Broader Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lastly, our analysis is based on historical data, and thus captures reactive adaptation to the conditions observed in 2022. Forward looking analyses based on climate [37] and land use projections [17] can point out if floods will increase in magnitude and frequency, to which extents future floods might resemble this past one, and with which probability floods such as the 2022 flood might occur throughout the next decades. Yet, such assessments would be based on a cascade of climate, hydrologic, and hydrodynamic models which would lead to further uncertainty.…”

Section: Discussion and Broader Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Relevant indicators of flood severity can nowadays be modelled on regional scales using a variety of simplified hydrodynamic models [13,14]. Such models enable assessing risks from past events and under future socio-economic and environmental change scenarios [15][16][17]. But hydrodynamic models come with considerable uncertainty [18] and their set-up and calibration for specific flood events remains resource and data intensive [13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Move up or move over: mapping opportunities for climate adaptation in Pakistan’s Indus plains

Schmitt,

Virgüez,

Ashfaq

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The 2022 Indus floods in Pakistan underscore the urgency of adapting to more frequent and severe natural disasters in a warming world. Post-disaster reconstruction offers a chance to built-in adaptation measures, but identifying feasible and cost-effective adaptation options is challenging, especially in data-scarce regions. Here we employ a high-resolution rapid assessment of flood stages combined with demographic data to identify adaptation opportunities and costs for the Indus floodplains. Under a plausible set of assumptions, we find that rebuilding houses in a flood-proof, elevated manner (‘moving up’) or (temporary) relocation (‘moving over’) could have protected 13%, respectively 16% of people affected during the 2022 floods, while the remaining 70% of people were exposed to shallow water levels that could have been addressed with low-cost adaptation. Implementing these measures during ongoing reconstruction could be an effective adaptation to future floods but will come with substantial costs. Rebuilding in a flood-proofed manner (‘moving up’) alone would already increase costs by 26%–63% ($1.5bn–$3.6bn) compared to estimated reconstruction costs without adaptation ($5.8bn). Additional costs would be incurred by relocation and adaptation of other infrastructure. The absence of local flood stage and socio-economic data creates uncertainty and points to future research avenues. Yet, our prototype approach demonstrates the value of rapid assessments for guiding post-disaster adaptation of livelihoods to future floods.

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Section: Discussion and Broader Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussion and Broader Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Move up or move over: mapping opportunities for climate adaptation in Pakistan’s Indus plains

Schmitt,

Virgüez,

Ashfaq

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…NbS evaluation is still challenged in assessing uncertainty and robustness (Lallemant et al, 2021), considering unexpected outcomes (Sala and Torchio, 2019) and multiple outcomes (Chausson et al, 2020). Also, NbS outcome indicators may not necessarily reflect the initial project goals (Dumitru and Wendling, 2021).…”

Section: Provisionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Setting the Stage for Decision-Making on Nature-Based Solutions for Coastal Climate Adaptation

Geukes¹,

Bodegom²,

Oudenhoven³

2023

Preprint

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“…Secondly, biodiversity can be improved through The primary challenge for NbS is climate change followed by sustainable city development [6]. To address the challenges of climate change, researchers explored hydro-climatic risks [9], urban heat island mitigation [10], carbon sequestration [11], and flood risk reduction [12]. As for the challenges of sustainable urban development, researchers have focused on shaping blue-green spaces, such as optimising urban parks, forests, and wetlands, to strengthen public health [13], raise incomes [7], and improve the quality of urban ecosystems [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nature-Based Solutions in “Forest–Wetland” Spatial Planning Strategies to Promote Sustainable City Development in Tianjin, China

Wang

Chen

et al. 2022

Land

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Nature-based solutions are some of the most effective strategies to promote sustainable city development; however, existing research on NbS is mostly comprised of single variable studies rather than multiple variables. The purpose of this study was to explore the possibility of extending the NbS of a single variable to two variables for the better development of sustainable cities. Both forestation and wetland restoration are regarded as NbS for sustainable city development. The research approach of “forest–wetland” NbS was proposed and centers on the process and core issues of traditional NbS. Taking Tianjin as an example, the spatial patterns of forests and wetlands, correlation between the spatial distribution of forests and wetlands, and spatial correlation between the areas of forest growth and wetland growth within a certain distance in different years were studied using a spatial distribution pattern analysis, geographic concentration analysis, kernel density estimation and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Based on the core issues of NbS and the above spatial analysis, a “forest–wetland” spatial planning strategy was formulated. The main conclusions are as follows: forest and wetland were negatively correlated in the whole area of Tianjin, forest resources w mainly located in north, while wetland resources were mainly located in south. Compared with forests, the spatial distribution of wetlands in Tianjin was more balanced. There exist synergy and trade-offs between forest and wetland area under certain circumstances. Growth of forests was positively correlated with the growth of wetlands, within a distance of 0–400 m from 2000 to 2010, and within a distance of 0–600 m from 2010 to 2020. An increase in forest area will lead to an increase in evaporation, which in turn will hinder the growth of wetlands in Tianjin. Forest–wetland ecological network could promote synergistic between forest and wetland, and grey infrastructure to reduce potential trade-off between forest and wetland.

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Nature-based solutions for flood risk reduction: A probabilistic modeling framework

Cited by 27 publications

References 53 publications

Move up or move over: mapping opportunities for climate adaptation in Pakistan’s Indus plains

Move up or move over: mapping opportunities for climate adaptation in Pakistan’s Indus plains

Setting the Stage for Decision-Making on Nature-Based Solutions for Coastal Climate Adaptation

Nature-Based Solutions in “Forest–Wetland” Spatial Planning Strategies to Promote Sustainable City Development in Tianjin, China

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