Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves

Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; White, Christopher J.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Argüeso, Daniel; Boschat, Ghyslaine; Cowan, Tim; Evans, Jason P.; Ekström, Marie; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Phatak, Aloke; Purich, Ariaan

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1650-0

Cited by 90 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 86 publications

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“…For parts of western Australia these trends occur in regions where the station network density is particularly low (shown in Figure ) making trend estimates less reliable here. We also note that over an extended time period (Figure S1) AWAP shows significant heat wave trends in southeast Australia, consistent with other studies [ Perkins‐Kirkpatrick et al ., ]. In the CMIP5 models over the evaluation time period (1958–2005), very large intermodel spread is apparent in heat wave trends, both in terms of the spatial patterns and magnitude.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…From a planning perspective there is also a clear desire for local to regional scale information on changes to Australian heat waves in the coming decades [ Perkins‐Kirkpatrick et al ., ], despite the enormous challenge this poses from a scientific perspective [e.g., Hulme et al ., ; Fischer et al ., ]. Further research works into feedback important to heat waves (e.g., land‐atmosphere coupling) and links with atmospheric dynamics are considered priorities for better understanding recent past and future changes to heat waves over these finer spatial scales [ Perkins‐Kirkpatrick et al ., ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparing Australian heat waves in the CMIP5 models through cluster analysis

et al. 2017

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Quantitative projections of climate extremes on local to regional scales are highly valuable for planners and decision makers and necessary for effective local climate change adaptation. However, in contrast to the model robustness of simulated extremes at the global scale, the robustness in simulating past and future extremes often diminishes over finer spatial scales. In this study we analyze heat waves simulated by state‐of‐the‐art global climate models over the Australian region. For the first time we present results explicitly detailing the model spread in simulated heat wave trends and climatology for this region for the recent past (1958–2005). As expected, large intermodel spread is observed at the local to regional scale for both heat wave trends and climatology. By analyzing multiple initial condition runs from individual models, we show that model internal variability strongly influences the spatial patterns of heat wave trends, while intermodel differences in heat wave climatology appear more influenced by model uncertainty. From a model evaluation perspective, cluster analysis is shown to be useful in characterizing robust spatial features of heat waves simulated by the models. In contrast to the multimodel mean, where uncorrelated spatial features tend to be averaged out, cluster composites preserve these features. Since previous examinations have tended to focus on the multimodel mean the extent of model spread may have been overlooked. Further examination of the processes that lead to model differences and biases is needed.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing Australian heat waves in the CMIP5 models through cluster analysis

et al. 2017

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“…We are skilled at identifying evidence for floods, storms, heatwaves, bushfires, and other hazards within the historic and geological records. We have contributed to Earth System Sciences' efforts to demonstrate statistical changes in climate extremes-the hazards that trigger disasters-the consequence of the Anthropocene (Perkins- Kirkpatrick et al 2016;Sewell et al 2016). Given that the Anthropocene's arrival is commensurate with a marked increase in carbon and a destabilizing atmosphere and hydrosphere and consequently, more hazards and disasters-then hazard and disaster scholars are important experts in identifying traces of this evidence for Earth system change that point to a late-start.…”

Section: How Do We Make Space For Slow Emergencies and What Do Slow Ementioning

confidence: 99%

Hazards and disasters in the Anthropocene: some critical reflections for the future

Dominey‐Howes

2018

Geosci. Lett.

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The arrival of the Anthropocene presents many challenges-both theoretical and practical. Scholars in different disciplines, practitioners, the public and others, are all considering the meaning of the Anthropocene and how its arrival affects their ways of knowing and doing. Given that a dominant narrative of the Anthropocene is one of a coming crisis, hazard, and disaster experts from different disciplines have much to contribute. Here, I briefly summarize the trajectory of hazards' and disasters' research through to the present to provide the context to ask a series of critical questions that experts in hazard and disaster might address to make theoretical and practical contributions to making the Anthropocene as good as it might be. The questions considered are: how useful is the contemporary crisis narrative of the Anthropocene for understanding the planetary history of hazards and disasters, and coupled to this; is the modern language of disaster risk reduction useful for understanding past disasters; how do we give voice to the more-than-human experiences of Anthropocene disasters; is it possible to mitigate the impacts of future hazards and disasters within the Anthropocene without addressing the root causes of vulnerability; how do we make space for slow emergencies and what do slow emergencies mean for understanding hazard and disaster in the Anthropocene; and finally, does the scholarship of hazard and disaster provide evidence useful for informing the debate about an early or late-start for the Anthropocene?

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“…For example, heatwaves, frosts, bushfires and droughts are all influenced by atmospheric temperature, but in different ways. Heatwaves are one or several days of extremely high temperature (Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al 2016), whereas frosts occur on timescales that are similar to heatwaves but at the other end of the temperature scale. Interestingly, Crimp et al (2016) show somewhat surprisingly that the prevalence of frosts can increase despite an increase in mean atmospheric temperature.…”

Section: Linking Large-scale Climate Processes To Australian Natural mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Examples include the need for a unified framework to identify atmospheric heatwave events (PerkinsKirkpatrick et al 2016), and the need to better understand the role of alternative runoffgenerating mechanisms and their relationship to future changes in flood risk . In many cases the authors also called for better integration of research across different natural hazards; for example, the connections between drought and the land-atmosphere feedbacks that produce heatwaves Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al 2016), and the link between coastal and inland processes in the context of flood hazard in estuarine regions McInnes et al 2016).…”

Section: Knowledge Gaps and Future Research Needsmentioning

confidence: 99%