Natural hazard information and migration across cities: evidence from the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake

Naoi, Michio; Sato, Keiichi; Tanaka, Yozo; Matsuura, Hiroaki; Nagamatsu, Shingo

doi:10.1007/s11111-020-00346-6

Cited by 9 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 28 publications

(35 reference statements)

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“…Detecting the tsunami and imaging of the wave height distribution prior to its arrival to the seacoast may be possible. It has been predicted that a future large earthquake called the Nankai Trough Earthquake with an assumed magnitude of 9.1 62 63 . It may be possible to detect this tsunami 30 to 40 minutes prior to arrival at the Tokyo coastal area assuming that the tsunami travels at 30 km/h.…”

Section: Ts-hkmsdd As a Tsunami Monitor Submarine Earthquakes Sometimes Cause Largementioning

confidence: 99%

First Results of Undersea Muography with the Tokyo-Bay Seafloor Hyper-Kilometric Submarine Deep Detector MAGMA-HKMSDD Collaboration

Tanaka

Bozza

Coniglione

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Tidal measurements are of great significance since they may provide us with essential data to apply towards protection of coastal communities and sea traffic. Currently, the tide gauge stations, satellite-based, pressure-based and ultrasonic-based techniques are commonly used. However, with these techniques, sensors have to be either floated on the sea surface or sunk onto the seafloor. The former option makes it difficult to conduct the tide measurements in high traffic maritime sea channels, and the latter option requires the construction of undersea electric and telecommunication infrastructures to support real time monitoring. On the other hand, with muography, sensors can be located underneath the seafloor inside, for example, an undersea tunnel where the electric and telecommunication infrastructures are more readily available. In this work, the world’s first under-seafloor particle detector array called the Tokyo-bay Seafloor Hyper-Kilometric Submarine Deep Detector (TS-HKMSDD) was deployed underneath the Tokyo-Bay seafloor for conducting submarine muography. Time-sequential muographic data were converted to the tidal levels above the detector and compared with the data acquired from the nearby tide gauge station. The results were consistent, indicating that submarine muography could be an alternative tool for tide measurements. We anticipate that if the length of the TS-HKMSDD is extended from 100 m to a full-scale as large as 9.6 km to provide continuous tidal information along the tunnel, muography will become an established standard, demonstrating its effectiveness as practical tide monitor for this heavy traffic waterway in Tokyo and in other important sea traffic areas worldwide.

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Section: Ts-hkmsdd As a Tsunami Monitor Submarine Earthquakes Sometimes Cause Largementioning

confidence: 99%

First Results of Undersea Muography with the Tokyo-Bay Seafloor Hyper-Kilometric Submarine Deep Detector MAGMA-HKMSDD Collaboration

Tanaka

Bozza

Coniglione

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…5 Furthermore, the recurring Nankai-Tonankai Trough megathrust subduction has historically triggered earthquakes with M w values greater than 8.0 and generated massive tsunamis that have eradicated coastal infrastructure in the southwestern region of Japan. [6][7][8] The anticipated Nankai Trough earthquakes are projected to cause an economic loss of up to approximately 171.6 trillion JPY (1.56 trillion USD) 9,10 and generate excessive disaster debris that requires more than 20 years to fully remove in several regions of Japan. 11 In addition, progressive sea-level rise effects are projected to exacerbate future tsunami disasters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Life‐cycle risk assessment of building portfolios subjected to tsunamis under non‐stationary sea‐level rise based on a compound renewal process

Alhamid

Akiyama

Aoki

et al. 2023

Earthq Engng Struct Dyn

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The immense impacts of tsunamis can inflict substantial damage on coastal infrastructure systems during their lifetime and lead to considerable economic loss. However, with the increasing intensity and variability of sea‐level rise due to climate change, evaluations of the life‐cycle tsunami risk associated with cumulative loss have become increasingly complex since tsunami hazards are time‐dependent. In addition, the number of earthquake events and the corresponding arrival times are substantially uncertain. Therefore, an accurate life‐cycle tsunami risk assessment methodology should be established to appropriately develop disaster mitigation measures. This paper provides a novel life‐cycle risk assessment of building portfolios subjected to tsunami hazards under non‐stationary sea‐level rise effects due to climate change. The cumulative loss of a building portfolio is evaluated through a compound renewal process based on earthquake interarrival time uncertainties and time‐dependent risk. The earthquake interarrival times are modeled using a non‐Poisson process based on historical data. Tsunami hazard curves that consider the effects of sea‐level rise, estimated based on climate models, are obtained with tsunami propagation analysis. The time‐variant annual risk is estimated based on reliability and building unit loss. Finally, a numerical procedure is proposed to estimate the life‐cycle tsunami risk of building portfolios. An illustrative example is provided by applying the framework to several municipalities in the Kochi Prefecture of Japan to assess the effects of climate change on the life‐cycle tsunami risk.

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“…Environmental catastrophes may cause reactive migration characterised by an increase in outflows from the affected areas. Other factors, such as post–disaster investments, post‐disaster aid, and other governmental transfers to affected areas and changing labour market conditions due to the restoration process may reverse such outflows (Naoi et al, 2020). There is contradictory evidence on the consequences of disasters in terms of direction and magnitude of local demographic change (Raker, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of the L'Aquila earthquake on demographic changes

Miccoli

Reynaud

Ambrosetti

et al. 2023

Population Space and Place

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This paper analyses the consequences on demographic changes observed in the municipalities of Abruzzo region after the earthquake of L'Aquila in 2009. Relying on Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) data on the population in the municipalities, we aim to understand how population growth changed after the earthquake, analysing population dynamics both in the municipalities affected by the earthquake and in the other municipalities of the Abruzzo region. We apply a spatial regression model to understand the associations between population growth, the earthquake, and some demographic and economic variables, taking into account the spatial autocorrelation. Our findings confirm the importance of space and the close association of the population dynamics after the earthquake with the population age structure, both in the pre‐existing situation and in the subsequent dynamics. Population trends in the Abruzzo region were closely associated with the pre‐existing vulnerabilities. The effect of the earthquake was strong in the crater municipalities in the period immediately after the shock, while it petered out over time. A destructive earthquake implies a tremendous shock, however, in places that are already suffering from demographic, social, and economic fragility, pre‐existing factors can act equally or even more strongly on the population dynamics in the medium term. Hence, in the medium period, the characteristics of the population and socio‐economic context are stronger than in the short one, and also the effect that space and territorial contiguities have on these and other nonobservable variables is stronger than in the short period.

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Natural hazard information and migration across cities: evidence from the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake

Cited by 9 publications

References 28 publications

First Results of Undersea Muography with the Tokyo-Bay Seafloor Hyper-Kilometric Submarine Deep Detector MAGMA-HKMSDD Collaboration

First Results of Undersea Muography with the Tokyo-Bay Seafloor Hyper-Kilometric Submarine Deep Detector MAGMA-HKMSDD Collaboration

Life‐cycle risk assessment of building portfolios subjected to tsunamis under non‐stationary sea‐level rise based on a compound renewal process

The impact of the L'Aquila earthquake on demographic changes

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