Natural and anthropogenic climate change: incorporating historical land cover change, vegetation dynamics and the global carbon cycle

Matthews, H. Damon; Weaver, Andrew J.; Meißner, Katrin J.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Eby, Michael

doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0392-2

Cited by 221 publications

(189 citation statements)

References 47 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

175

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Why this cancelation should remain so precise over such a large range of cumulative carbon emissions remains poorly explained. Matthews et al (2009) suggest that the link between ocean heat uptake and ocean uptake of carbon, which are driven by the same deep-ocean mixing processes on long time scales, is the origin of this precise cancelation of competing factors. However, Matthews et al (2009) does not provide a detailed analysis to support this inference.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…The equilibrium surface temperature response to a change in radiative forcing has been shown to be approximately proportional to the magnitude of radiative forcing (e.g., Hansen et al 1997). However, the response of the global average surface temperature to cumulative emissions of CO 2 has been shown to be roughly linear in simulations of historical and future climate (e.g., Matthews et al 2009). A relationship that Earth system models suggest will hold until approximately 2000 Pg of carbon (Pg C) have been emitted to the atmosphere (e.g., Matthews et al 2009;Allen et al 2009;Zickfeld et al 2012;Gillett et al 2013;Allen and Stocker 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A relationship that Earth system models suggest will hold until approximately 2000 Pg of carbon (Pg C) have been emitted to the atmosphere (e.g., Matthews et al 2009;Allen et al 2009;Zickfeld et al 2012;Gillett et al 2013;Allen and Stocker 2014). This linear relationship, the slope of which has been designated the transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions (TCRE; Collins et al 2013;Planton 2013), is a highly convenient metric for climate policy, as it establishes a simple relationship between the cause of warming (CO 2 emissions) and the expected magnitude of warming that is independent of when carbon is emitted (e.g., Matthews et al 2009;Allen et al 2009;Zickfeld et al 2012;Gillett et al 2013;Allen and Stocker 2014). In addition, the rate independence of warming (implicit in TCRE) allows for simple path-independent budgets of cumulative carbon emissions to be established for the climate system to stay below a chosen threshold of warming.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following cessation of emissions, other processes become dominant and Earth system model simulations suggest that global temperatures will either decline, stabilize (e.g., Matthews and Weaver 2010), or slowly continue to increase for centuries (e.g., MacDougall et al 2013), contingent on behavior of physical and carbon cycle processes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The origin of the near-constant nature of TCRE remains a subject of scientific interest (e.g., Matthews et al 2009;Gregory et al 2009;Raupach 2013). The leading hypothesis at present is that the decline in radiative forcing from a unit of CO 2 added to the atmosphere (because of the logarithmic nature of the forcing) is compensated by an increase in the airborne fraction of CO 2 Gregory et al 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions

2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions (TCRE) is a useful metric of climate warming that directly relates the cause of climate change (cumulative carbon emissions) to the most used index of climate change (global mean near-surface temperature change). In this paper, analytical reasoning is used to investigate why TCRE is near constant over a range of cumulative emissions up to 2000 Pg of carbon. In addition, a climate model of intermediate complexity, forced with a constant flux of CO 2 emissions, is used to explore the effect of terrestrial carbon cycle feedback strength on TCRE. The analysis reveals that TCRE emerges from the diminishing radiative forcing from CO 2 per unit mass being compensated for by the diminishing ability of the ocean to take up heat and carbon. The relationship is maintained as long as the ocean uptake of carbon, which is simulated to be a function of the CO 2 emissions rate, dominates changes in the airborne fraction of carbon. Strong terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks have a dependence on the rate of carbon emission and, when present, lead to TRCE becoming rate dependent. Despite these feedbacks, TCRE remains roughly constant over the range of the representative concentration pathways and therefore maintains its primary utility as a metric of climate change.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions

2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Reversing climate warming by artificial atmospheric carbon‐dioxide removal: Can a Holocene‐like climate be restored?

MacDougall

2013

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Most climate modeling studies of future climate have focused on the effects of carbon emissions in the present century or the long‐term fate of anthropogenically emitted carbon. However, after carbon emissions cease, there may be a desire to return to a “safe” CO2 concentration within this millennium. Realistically, this implies artificially removing CO2 from the atmosphere. In this study, experiments are conducted using the University of Victoria Earth system‐climate model forced with novel future scenarios to explore the reversibility of climate warming as a response to a gradual return to preindustrial radiative forcing. Due to hysteresis in the permafrost carbon pool, the quantity of carbon that must be removed from the atmosphere is larger than the quantity that was originally emitted (115–180% of original emissions). In all the reversibility simulations with a moderate climate sensitivity, a climate resembling that of the Holocene can be restored by 3000 CE.

show abstract

Simulating global and local surface temperature changes due to Holocene anthropogenic land cover change

Vavrus

Kutzbach

et al. 2014

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Surface albedo changes from anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) represent the second largest negative radiative forcing behind aerosol during the industrial era. Using a new reconstruction of ALCC during the Holocene era by Kaplan et al. (2011), we quantify the local and global temperature response induced by Holocene ALCC in the Community Climate System Model, version 4. We find that Holocene ALCC causes a global cooling of 0.17°C due to the biogeophysical effects of land-atmosphere exchange of momentum, moisture, and radiative and heat fluxes. On the global scale, the biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC from carbon emissions dominate the biogeophysical effects by causing 0.9°C global warming. The net effects of Holocene ALCC amount to a global warming of 0.73°C during the preindustrial era, which is comparable to the~0.8°C warming during industrial times. On local to regional scales, such as parts of Europe, North America, and Asia, the biogeophysical effects of Holocene ALCC are significant and comparable to the biogeochemical effect.

show abstract

Natural and anthropogenic climate change: incorporating historical land cover change, vegetation dynamics and the global carbon cycle

Cited by 221 publications

References 47 publications

The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions

The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions

Reversing climate warming by artificial atmospheric carbon‐dioxide removal: Can a Holocene‐like climate be restored?

Simulating global and local surface temperature changes due to Holocene anthropogenic land cover change

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About