Nationalism and ethnic heterogeneity: The importance of local context for nationalist party vote choice

Loewen, Peter John; Héroux-Legault, Maxime; Miguel, Carolina de

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2015.04.005

Cited by 12 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Political parties have adjusted to Canada's geographically diverse electoral landscape by decentralizing their campaigns, providing a substantial degree of autonomy to local candidates and allowing local candidates to adapt their strategies and tactics to local contexts (Carty, 2002; Carty and Young, 2012; Coletto et al, 2011; Loewen et al, 2015). Furthermore, the vast majority of official party candidates are chosen by local party members, increasing the link between local candidates and their constituents.…”

Section: Local Candidate Effects In Canadian Electionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local Candidate Effects in Canadian Elections

et al. 2018

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What impact do local candidates have on elections in single member district plurality electoral systems? We provide new evidence using data from a large election study carried out during the 2015 Canadian federal election. We improve on the measurement of local candidate effects by asking over 20,000 survey respondents to rate the candidates in their constituency directly. We present three estimates. We find that when all voters are considered together, local candidate evaluations are decisive for approximately 4 per cent of voters. Second, these evaluations are decisive for the outcome of 10 per cent of constituency contests. Third, when models are estimated for each constituency, we find significant evaluation effects for 14 per cent of candidates.

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Section: Local Candidate Effects In Canadian Electionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local Candidate Effects in Canadian Elections

et al. 2018

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“…Some find that individuals who identify strongly with the region or relevant ethno-national group, due to family origins or aspects of the education system, are more supportive of increased autonomy or independence (Serrano, 2013; Sarigil & Karakoc, 2016; Hierro & Gallego, 2018; Guinjoan, 2021). Others establish that support for secessionism is highly correlated with regional resources (Amat, 2012; Gehring & Schneider, 2020) and individual economic considerations (Muñoz & Tormos, 2015; Loewen, Heroux-Legault & de Miguel, 2015; Balcells, Fernández-Albertos & Kuo, 2015; Hierro & Queralt, 2021). Of course, given the correlated nature of many individual-level characteristics, disentangling those that are the most causally relevant is difficult.…”

Section: Motivating Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent literature hones more thoroughly on the individual-level correlates of support for such movements and related parties (e.g. Loewen, Heroux-Legault & de Miguel, 2015; Muñoz & Tormos, 2015; Hierro & Queralt, 2021). Yet, a key feature of independence movements that remains less understood and explored is the corresponding affective polarization or intergroup animus that can occur within the contested regions as such movements escalate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Secessionist conflict and affective polarization: Evidence from Catalonia

Balcells

Kuo

2022

Journal of Peace Research

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Can secessionism be a basis for affective or social polarization? Despite much research on independence movements, their relationship to polarization, a key mechanism theorized as increasing the risk of violent conflict, remains less understood. We argue that the issue of secession can affectively polarize along both policy and ethnic group lines even in the case of nonviolent disputes, and posit a number of expectations regarding such secessionist-based polarization. We test our argument with the case of Catalonia, a substate territory that has experienced a deep secessionist crisis since 2017, using new data from a panel survey and embedded experiments fielded across two key time periods. We find that individuals’ secessionist preferences condition high levels of affective polarization, in that pro- and anti-independence advocates have strong negative views of one another. In addition, there is spillover in terms of stereotypes of associated language groups (i.e. Catalan, Spanish). Importantly, we find a group of moderates in between the two policy poles that exhibit far less polarization. Finally, we document the persistence of these overall patterns. Our results contribute to understanding the underexplored polarization dynamics of secessionist movements, particularly in contexts where high intensity violence (e.g. terrorism, civil war) has not occurred.

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“…There is an extensive literature measuring the effect of different components of local campaigns on Canadian elections. Cutler (2002) shows that voters are responsive to the local economic conditions, while Loewen et al (2015) show that the linguistic makeup of an area affects the link between voters’ views on nationalism and their support for the Bloc Québécois (BQ). Belanger et al (2003) and Carty and Eagles (2005) show that leaders’ visits to a riding increase a party's vote share, though the effect they find is limited to the Liberals and NDP.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ready or Not? The Strength of NDP Riding Associations and the Rise and Fall of the NDP

Westlake

2022

Can J Pol Sci

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The Canadian party system experienced a period of remarkable transition between 2006 and 2015, with the New Democratic Party (NDP) and Liberals trading places as the main competitor to the Conservatives. While national-level explanations are often used to explain this volatility, William Cross's research has shown that local association revitalization played a central role in the Liberals’ 2015 resurgence. This article examines the relationship between NDP local spending and success between 2006 and 2015. It shows that the NDP was consistently outspent by its opponents overall but that it often had a spending advantage in marginal ridings. As a result, this article finds little evidence that the NDP's local spending disadvantage cost the NDP seats, even though it finds a positive correlation between NDP local spending and NDP vote share.

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Nationalism and ethnic heterogeneity: The importance of local context for nationalist party vote choice

Cited by 12 publications

References 21 publications

Local Candidate Effects in Canadian Elections

Local Candidate Effects in Canadian Elections

Secessionist conflict and affective polarization: Evidence from Catalonia

Ready or Not? The Strength of NDP Riding Associations and the Rise and Fall of the NDP

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