National record linkage study of mortality for a large cohort of opioid users ascertained by drug treatment or criminal justice sources in England, 2005–2009

Pierce, Matthias; Bird, Sheila M.; Hickman, Matthew; Millar, Tim

doi:10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2014.09.782

Cited by 84 publications

(105 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Although heroin use would appear to be declining in the UK, given low rates of use among young people in available indicator data (2013/14 NDTMS data), there remains an older population of heroin users who are targeted for intervention on the premise that their drug use causes crime. The focus on opiate use is also important given recent concern over increasing mortality rates associated with opiate use in both the UK (Pierce, Bird, Hickman, & Millar, 2015a) and other countries, such as Australia (Kimber, Larney, Hickman, Randall, & Degenhardt, 2015) and the US (Jones, 2013). Available evidence does point to divergent patterns of problematic drug use between countries.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathways through opiate use and offending: A systematic review

Hayhurst

Pierce

Hickman

et al. 2017

International Journal of Drug Policy

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BackgroundAlthough evidence points to a strong link between illicit drug use and crime, robust evidence for temporal order in the relationship is scant. We carried out a systematic review to assess the evidence for pathways through opiate/crack cocaine use and offending to determine temporal order.MethodsA systematic review sourced five databases, three online sources, bibliographies and citation mapping. Inclusion criteria were: focus on opiate/crack use, and offending; pre-drug use information; longitudinal design; corroborative official crime records. Rate ratios (RR) of post-drug use initiation to pre-drug use initiation were pooled using random effects meta-analysis.Results20 studies were included; UK (9) and US (11). All were of opiate use. Mean age at (recorded) offending onset (16.7 yrs) preceded mean age at opiate-use onset (19.6 yrs). Substantial heterogeneity (over 80%: unexplained by meta-regression) meant that RRs were not pooled. The RR for total (recorded) offending ranged from 0.71 to 25.7 (10 studies; 22 subsamples: positive association, 4: equivocal, 1: negative association). Positive associations were observed in 14/15 independent samples; unlikely to be a chance finding (sign test p = 0.001).Individual offence types were examined: theft (RR 0.63–8.3, 13 subsamples: positive, 9: equivocal, 1 negative); burglary (RR 0.74–50.0, 9 subsamples: positive, 13: equivocal); violence (RR 0.39–16.0, 6 subsamples: positive, 15: equivocal); and robbery (RR 0.50–5.0, 5 subsamples: positive, 15: equivocal).ConclusionsAvailable evidence suggests that onset-opiate use accelerates already-existing offending, particularly for theft. However, evidence is out of date, with studies characterised by heterogeneity and failure to use a matched non-opiate-user comparison group to better-establish whether onset-opiate use is associated with additional crime.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathways through opiate use and offending: A systematic review

Hayhurst

Pierce

Hickman

et al. 2017

International Journal of Drug Policy

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“…We also obtained data on: (i) the number of drug‐related poisoning deaths (DRPs) that occurred in Bristol during 2011, for which opiates and/or crack cocaine were mentioned on the death certificate; and (ii) rates of DRP for a large English cohort of PWID linked to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality register 35, 36. More details are provided in the Supporting information, Appendix.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Problem drug use prevalence estimation revisited: heterogeneity in capture–recapture and the role of external evidence

et al. 2015

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Background and AimsCapture–recapture (CRC) analysis is recommended for estimating the prevalence of problem drug use or people who inject drugs (PWID). We aim to demonstrate how naive application of CRC can lead to highly misleading results, and to suggest how the problems might be overcome.MethodsWe present a case study of estimating the prevalence of PWID in Bristol, UK, applying CRC to lists in contact with three services. We assess: (i) sensitivity of results to different versions of the dominant (treatment) list: specifically, to inclusion of non‐incident cases and of those who were referred directly from one of the other services; (ii) the impact of accounting for a novel covariate, housing instability; and (iii) consistency of CRC estimates with drug‐related mortality data. We then incorporate formally the drug‐related mortality data and lower bounds for prevalence alongside the CRC into a single coherent model.ResultsFive of 11 models fitted the full data equally well but generated widely varying prevalence estimates, from 2740 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 2670, 2840] to 6890 (95% CI = 3740, 17680). Results were highly sensitive to inclusion of non‐incident cases, demonstrating the presence of considerable heterogeneity, and were sensitive to a lesser extent to inclusion of direct referrals. A reduced data set including only incident cases and excluding referrals could be fitted by simpler models, and led to much greater consistency in estimates. Accounting for housing stability improved model fit considerably more than did the standard covariates of age and gender. External data provided validation of results and aided model selection, generating a final estimate of the number of PWID in Bristol in 2011 of 2770 [95% credible interval (Cr‐I) = 2570, 3110] or 0.9% (95% Cr‐I = 0.9, 1.0%) of the population aged 15–64 years.ConclusionsSteps can be taken to reduce bias in capture–recapture analysis, including: careful consideration of data sources, reduction of lists to less heterogeneous subsamples, use of covariates and formal incorporation of external data.

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“…Overdose is a major cause of mortality among people who inject drugs (PWID), especially in those who inject opioids such as heroin (Pierce, Bird, Hickman, & Millar, 2015;Strang, 2015). The United Nations World Drug Report 2015 described the number of these premature deaths in drug users as "unacceptable" (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 2015) because the majority are preventable through interventions such as long-term opioid substitution therapy and the use of opioid antagonists, such as naloxone.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The extent of and factors associated with self-reported overdose and self-reported receipt of naloxone among people who inject drugs (PWID) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland

O’Halloran

Cullen

Njoroge

et al. 2017

International Journal of Drug Policy

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The extent of and factors associated with self-reported overdose and selfreported receipt of naloxone among people who inject drugs (PWID) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/6768/ Article LJMU has developed LJMU Research Online for users to access the research output of the University more effectively. Copyright © and Moral Rights for the papers on this site are retained by the individual authors and/or other copyright owners. Users may download and/or print one copy of any article(s) in LJMU Research Online to facilitate their private study or for non-commercial research. You may not engage in further distribution of the material or use it for any profit-making activities or any commercial gain.The version presented here may differ from the published version or from the version of the record. Please see the repository URL above for details on accessing the published version and note that access may require a subscription. LJMU Research OnlineThe extent of and factors associated with self-reported overdose and self-reported receipt of naloxone among people who inject drugs in England, Wales and Northern Ireland AbstractThe extent of and factors associated with self-reported overdose and self-reported receipt of naloxone among people who inject drugs in England, Wales and Northern Ireland

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National record linkage study of mortality for a large cohort of opioid users ascertained by drug treatment or criminal justice sources in England, 2005–2009

Cited by 84 publications

References 25 publications

Pathways through opiate use and offending: A systematic review

Pathways through opiate use and offending: A systematic review

Problem drug use prevalence estimation revisited: heterogeneity in capture–recapture and the role of external evidence

The extent of and factors associated with self-reported overdose and self-reported receipt of naloxone among people who inject drugs (PWID) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland

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