National Health Expenditure Projections, 2019–28: Expected Rebound In Prices Drives Rising Spending Growth

Tracking the U.S. health sector: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

“…When looking to longer-term trends in health care prices (over the next 5–10 years), before the pandemic, some predicted a period of accelerated price growth for the sector, particularly in relation to overall inflation. Driven by continued provider consolidation plus other factors, CMS has predicted HCPI will rise almost twice as fast over the 2019 to 2028 period, when compared to the 2014 to 2018 timeframe (Keehan et al 2020 ). It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic impacts these predictions and the larger health care sector.…”

“…Total spending is partitioned by type of good or service (e.g., hospital care, physician and clinical services, retail spending on prescription drugs) and by source of funds for each good or service type (e.g., private health insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, out-of-pocket spending). In the spring of each year, CMS also publishes 10-year projections of these data; the March 2020 release projected spending from 2019 through 2028 (Keehan et al 2020 ). As we will see, these projections for 2020 have been overtaken by events.…”

Vital Directions For Health And Health Care: Priorities For 2021

“…13 The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the weaknesses of the US health system and exacerbated already prevalent health disparities across the nation. 14,15 Rising numbers of uninsured people 16 that have worsened during the pandemic, 17 high costs of novel therapeutics, 12 and access barriers underscore the need for health reform. The article "Health Costs and Financing: Challenges and Strategies for a New Administration," by William Shrank and colleagues, takes a deeper look into these issues and provides recommendations to improve the efficacy and efficiency of the US health care system in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond, with explicit consideration of how to address disparities in outcomes to improve equity in doing so.…”

The U.S. Health Care System on the Eve of the Covid-19 Epidemic: A Summary of Recent Evidence on Its Impaired Performance

“…12 An official estimate from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), released prior to the COVID-19 epidemic, predicted that U.S. health expenditures would grow by 5.4% annually between 2019 and 2028, reaching $6.2 trillion (19.7% of gross domestic product) by the end of the period. 13 The Harms of Copayments Providing essential medications without charge increased adherence to treatment and significantly lowered blood pressure among Canadians prescribed an antihypertensive drug, according to a randomized, controlled trial in Ontario. (Canada's single-payer system does not include universal drug coverage, an omission that the ruling Liberal Party promised to address during the election campaign last fall.)…”