National Assessment of Pneumonia Morbidity in Children in the Period 1993-2017 and Prognosis for 2025

Abstract

The aim: To assess national trends in the morbidity of pneumonia in children aged 0-6 years, 7-14 years and 15-17 years in the period from 1993 to 2017 and mathematically predict the dynamics of the morbidity in 2025. Materials and methods: Data from the Center for Medical Statistics of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine for the period 1993-2017 were used to calculate the morbidity rate of pneumonia in children aged 0-6 years, 7-14 and 15-17 years. Result: The period from 1993 to 2017 is characterized by high incidence of pneumonia in children in Ukraine (from 6.74 to 8.21 per 1000). In children aged 0-6 years, the morbidity 1000 ranged from 11.45 to 11.17, in children aged 7-14 years – from 4.65 to 6.46, in adolescents aged 15-17 years – from 1.99 to 10.47 . In Ukraine, the morbidity rate has significantly exceeded the that in European countries. In 2025, the morbidity of children under 6 years old in Ukraine may make up 3.84 per 1,000. Conclusions: In Ukraine, a significant increase in the morbidity rate of pneumonia in adolescents is predicted by 2025. It is necessary to develop a national strategy to improve the health of children and adolescents to implement policy and management measures in the health care system, aimed at effective prevention and quality treatment of pneumonia in children and adolescents.