National and Regional Impacts of an Increase in Value‐Added Tax: A CGE Analysis for South Africa

Roos, Louise; Horridge, Mark; Heerden, Jan van; Adams, Philip; Bohlmann, Heinrich R.; Kobe, Kgatedi Kenneth; Vumbukani‐Lepolesa, Bokang

doi:10.1111/saje.12240

Cited by 11 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 17 publications

(20 reference statements)

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“…However, the high prevalence and pattern of overweight and obesity among WCBA reported in this paper means the government needs to complement the sugar-sweetened beverage tax with other policies to address overweight and obesity. Although many essential food items, including "healthy" food items, are exempted from valueadded tax in South Africa [82], they could be further subsidised to increase accessibility and availability [2]. There is also a need for awareness-raising campaigns promoting healthy eating and lifestyles among WCBA [21], bearing in mind that the risk of obesity increases with age.…”

Section: Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overweight and obesity in non-pregnant women of childbearing age in South Africa: subgroup regression analyses of survey data from 1998 to 2017

Nglazi

Ataguba

2022

BMC Public Health

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Background Overweight and obesity in adults are increasing globally and in South Africa (SA), contributing substantially to deaths and disability from non-communicable diseases. Compared to men, women suffer a disproportionate burden of obesity, which adversely affects their health and that of their offspring. This study assessed the changing patterns in prevalence and determinants of overweight and obesity among non-pregnant women in SA aged 15 to 49 years (women of childbearing age (WCBA)) between 1998 and 2017. Methods This paper conducts secondary data analysis of seven consecutive nationally representative household surveys—the 1998 and 2016 SA Demographic and Health Surveys, 2008, 2010–2011, 2012, 2014–2015 and 2017 waves of the National Income Dynamics Survey, containing anthropometric and sociodemographic data. The changing patterns of the overweight and obesity prevalence were assessed across key variables. The inferential assessment was based on a standard t-test for the prevalence. Adjusted odds ratios from logistic regression analysis were used to examine the factors associated with overweight and obesity at each time point. Results Overweight and obesity prevalence among WCBA in SA increased from 51.3 to 60.0% and 24.7 to 35.2%, respectively, between 1998 and 2017. The urban-rural disparities in overweight and obesity decreased steadily between 1998 and 2017. The prevalence of overweight and obesity among WCBA varied by age, population group, location, current smoking status and socioeconomic status of women. For most women, the prevalence of overweight and/or obesity in 2017 was significantly higher than in 1998. Significant factors associated with being overweight and obese included increased age, self-identifying with the Black African population group, higher educational attainment, urban area residence, and wealthier socioeconomic quintiles. Smoking was inversely related to being overweight and obese. Conclusions The increasing trend in overweight and obesity in WCBA in SA demands urgent public health attention. Increased public awareness is needed about obesity and its health consequences for this vulnerable population. Efforts are needed across different sectors to prevent excessive weight gain in WCBA, focusing on older women, self-identified Black African population group, women with higher educational attainment, women residing in urban areas, and wealthy women.

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Section: Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overweight and obesity in non-pregnant women of childbearing age in South Africa: subgroup regression analyses of survey data from 1998 to 2017

Nglazi

Ataguba

2022

BMC Public Health

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“…Ref. [36], used a CGE model to study the increase by 1 percent of the VAT in South Africa, and found that it affected not only the cost of living (i.e., consumers) but also the short-run cost to the employer.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Analysis of the Tax Incidence of VAT to Milk in Malawi

2020

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Dairy is a key investment sector for the Government of Malawi. On 1 October 2016, the Malawi Revenue Authority announced that milk, which until then had been exempted from value added tax (VAT), was going to be taxed at the standard rate of 16.5 percent. The measure has been met with strong opposition and thus, was short lived (eliminated in May 2017). The purpose of this paper is to present an analysis of the effect that such a tax would have on its incidence, on the different stages of the supply chain, and ultimately on its economic and social sustainability. The paper investigates these implications by developing a multimarket model applied to the Malawian dairy supply chain. The results indicate that 24.3 percent of the VAT revenues would be borne by consumers and the remaining 75.7 percent would be borne by the domestic dairy industry (i.e., processors and smallholder farmers). This was due mainly to the value of the price elasticity of consumers’ demand for pasteurised milk. The results highlight the vulnerability of inclusive value chains to economic policies that may affect consumers’ demand.

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“…An average value over all industries for the sensitivity of capital growth to variations in expected rates of return is used as a proxy, denoted by the term S_KGR_ERoRt in (EQ27). We base our estimates for these parameters on those used in Roos et al (2020). Source: authors' elaboration based on Dixon and Rimmer (2002: 191).…”

Section: Rate Of Inflation In Year Tmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact on the South African economy of alternative regulatory arrangements in the petroleum sector

Bohlmann¹,

Crompton²

2020

WIDER Working Paper

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This paper adds quantitative analysis to the study by Crompton et al. (2020), in which various alternative regulatory arrangements regarding the petrol price in South Africa were explored. We use a multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model for South Africa to conduct our economic impact analysis. Five scenarios are modelled, first individually to correctly calibrate the shocks, and then cumulatively to find the overall economy-wide effects of the proposed reforms. Under the most comprehensive set of reforms to the determination of petrol prices, which seeks to emulate market forces, the South African economy is seeing substantial benefits. GDP is expected to rise by 0.67 per cent and real wages by over 1.1 per cent relative to the baseline. Refineries are assumed to shrug off reforms targeted at removing pure profits earned via the import parity price (Basic Fuel Price) methodology by accepting a slightly lower rate of return, enabling them to meet the expected increase in demand for petrol on the back of the lower consumer prices achieved via the reforms. Whilst job losses at fuel service stations may be expected as a result of reduced revenues and margins, increased activity and job opportunities in the rest of the economy, facilitated through cheaper trade and transport margins, will more than offset those losses.

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National and Regional Impacts of an Increase in Value‐Added Tax: A CGE Analysis for South Africa

Cited by 11 publications

References 17 publications

Overweight and obesity in non-pregnant women of childbearing age in South Africa: subgroup regression analyses of survey data from 1998 to 2017

Overweight and obesity in non-pregnant women of childbearing age in South Africa: subgroup regression analyses of survey data from 1998 to 2017

An Analysis of the Tax Incidence of VAT to Milk in Malawi

The impact on the South African economy of alternative regulatory arrangements in the petroleum sector

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