National and Global Impacts of Genetically Modified Crops

Abstract

We estimate the impact of genetically modified (GM) crops on countrywide yields, harvested area, and trade using a triple-differences rollout design that exploits variation in the availability of GM seeds across crops, countries, and time. We find positive impacts on yields, especially in poor countries. Our estimates imply that without GM crops, the world would have needed 3.4 percent additional cropland to keep global agricultural output at its 2019 level. We also find that bans on GM cultivation have limited the global gain from GM adoption to one-third of its potential. Poor countries would benefit most from lifting such bans. (JEL O13, Q15, Q16, Q17, Q18)

An assessment of the linkages between GM crop biotechnology and climate change mitigation

“…A recent assessment of the global impacts from GM crops found that in the absence of GM crops, an additional 3.4% more land would have been required to produce the equivalent yields. 6 This additional land would have required the conversion of unsustainable marginal land into crop production as well as cutting down additional forested lands. The study further concluded that regulatory bans on the commercialization and adoption of GM crops restricted the benefits resulting from GM crop production to be just one-third of their full potential.…”

“…A recent global assessment of GM crop impacts concluded that just one-third of the benefits capable from the technology have been realized the lack of commercialization. 6 The evidence we have gathered shows that GM crops are capable of being an integral part of both climate mitigation and adaptation. As climates change and governments focus on mitigation and adaptation strategies, innovations such as gene editing are poised to extend and enhance the benefits of GM crops.…”

Building the Bioeconomy through Innovation, Monitoring and Science‐based Policies

“…The modern bioeconomy can only reach its promise by utilising modern agricultural biotechnology. Despite regulatory uncertainty that discourages the introduction of agricultural biotechnology innovations and has limited their use, GMO and CRISPR have enabled significantly reduced food price pressures and have been adopted by and improved the well‐being of numerous subsistence farms (Hansen and Wingender, 2023). However, hundreds of traits have not been commercialised, and developing countries in Asia and especially Africa, which are likely to benefit most from the technology, have not attempted using it – to a large extent due to external pressures from European countries and NGOs.…”