Myanmar's 2020 Election: Explaining the Strong Performance of the NLD and Some Ethnic Parties

Abstract

Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) won another landslide victory in the 2020 general election. Although there was widespread dissatisfaction with the government's poor management of the economy and ethnic conflicts, as well as with the pre-electoral coordination of ethnic parties in several states, opposition and ethnic-based parties had failed to gain more seats. Previous explanations had focused on the economy, electoral system bias, weak party institutionalization, and vote splitting among ethnic parties; however, they underestimated the significance of two contextual factors: military dominance of politics and ethnic conflict. This article argues that military dominance hindered normal political development in Myanmar. The anti-military sentiment favored the NLD, which made most Bamar voters disregard the party's poor economic performance. Despite the electoral system's bias, prolonged ethnic conflicts made ethnic parties that had fought for their community's causes more likely to maintain support. These arguments are verified by survey and electoral data sets. The military nullified the 2020 election claiming that electoral fraud was to blame, but the findings indicate that it was the political environment the military created that led to the victory of the NLD and some ethnic parties in the first place.

FPTP Electoral System of Myanmar as a Barrier for Ethnic Minority Inclusiveness in Parliamentary Decision-Making

“…In fact, out of the 255 seats the NLD won in the Pyithu Hluttaw, a remarkable 196 were secured through absolute majorities. An analysis of the NLD's vote share across constituencies indicates that its vote distribution was exceptionally efficient (Huang, 2022).…”