Abstract:New lineages of SARS-CoV-2 are constantly emerging. They contain mutations in the spike glycoprotein that can affect virus infectivity, transmissibility, or sensitivity to vaccine-elicited antibodies. Here we show that the emergence of new spike variants is accurately predicted by patterns of amino acid variability (volatility) in small virus clusters that phylogenetically-precede or chronologically-predate such events. For each spike position, volatility within the virus clusters, volatility at adjacent posit… Show more
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