Multivariate poisson lognormal modeling of crashes by type and severity on rural two lane highways

Wang, Kai; Ivan, John N.; Равишанкер, Налини; Jackson, Eric

doi:10.1016/j.aap.2016.11.006

Cited by 68 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Additionally, a lane width greater than 10 ft is associated with lower crash frequency for only PDO crashes, although this factor has no significant impact on the FI crash types. This finding supports previous research that associates wider lanes with fewer non-incapacitating injury (B-injury) and PDO crashes on state highways ( 33 ).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

Association between Driveway Land Use and Safety Performance on Rural Highways

Chakraborty

Gates

2020

Transportation Research Record

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Rural roads are a critical component of the transportation network in the U.S., including Michigan, where county roads comprise of a majority of the state’s roadway mileage. The rates of fatal crashes on rural highways are substantially higher than that on urban roads. Previous research has investigated the safety impacts of driveway density, but the effects of driveway land use on rural roadway safety performance, particularly for county roadways, remains under-researched. This study analyzed the safety impacts of various classifications of driveway land utilization on rural two-lane state and county roads. Non-animal segment crashes from 2011 to 2015 were analyzed along with roadway data for over 5,556 mi of state highways and 5,890 mi of paved county segments from across Michigan. To account for the unobserved heterogeneity associated with varied county design standards and site characteristics, mixed-effects negative binomial regression with county- and site-specific random effects was utilized. Separate models were developed for state highways and paved county roads. The results indicated that commercial driveways possess a stronger effect on crash occurrence than other driveway land use types, including residential and industrial driveways. The effect of driveway density on crash frequency was also found to be stronger on state highways compared with the county roads. This study contributes to the limited body of knowledge in relation to the relationship between traffic safety and driveway land use for rural roadway segments, particularly for county roads, which typically possess design and travel characteristics that are considerably different from those of state highways.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

Association between Driveway Land Use and Safety Performance on Rural Highways

Chakraborty

Gates

2020

Transportation Research Record

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“…Some of the previous works showed that as the lane width increased, the total accident frequency decreased in two-lane rural highways ( 32 – 34 ). However, Wang et al ( 35 ) showed that a wider lane width is associated with more opposite-direction crashes, but fewer single-vehicle crashes. Shariat-Mohaymany et al ( 36 ) also showed that surface width increased the risk of head-on traffic conflicts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Explanatory Analysis of the Safety of Short Passing Zones on Two-Lane Rural Highways

Karimi

Boroujerdian

2020

Transportation Research Record

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Passing zones afford sufficient passing distance for passing vehicles on two-lane rural highways. This study aimed to assess the effects of geometric and traffic variables on the safety of short passing zones using the rate of passing maneuvers ending in the no-passing zone as a surrogate safety measure. A Poisson regression model was applied to aerial data collected by drone at seven passing zones. The findings showed that increase in the length of the passing zone corresponds to decrease in the rate of passing maneuvers ending in the no-passing zone. The passing rate is also affected by the lane width, the percentage of heavy vehicles in the subject direction, and the directional split in the subject direction. The rate of passing maneuvers ending in no-passing zones reaches a peak as the two-way traffic flow rate increases to 600 vehicles per hour regardless of the directional split, or as the absolute vertical grade increases to 4.8%–6% depending on the percentage of heavy vehicles. After the peak value, the rate decreases. The presented model can serve as a tool for evaluating and improving the safety of short passing zones.

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“…Several studies recognizing the importance of unobserved heterogeneity have developed multivariate approaches that account for the potential dependency across count variables. The various model structures developed from multivariate models include multivariate Poisson regression model (Ye et al, 2009), multivariate Poisson lognormal model (Serhiyenko et al, 2016), multinomialgeneralized Poisson model (Chiou and Fu, 2013), multivariate Poisson gamma mixture count model (Mothafer et al, 2016), multivariate Poisson lognormal spatial and temporal model (Aguero-Valverde et al, 2016;Cheng et al, 2017), Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation Multivariate Poisson Lognormal model (Wang et al, 2017), Bayesian latent class flexible mixture multivariate model (Heydari et al, 2017) and multivariate random-parameters zeroinflated negative binomial model (Anastasopoulos, 2016).…”

Section: Earlier Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

A joint econometric approach for modeling crash counts by collision type

Bhowmik

Yasmin

Eluru

2018

Analytic Methods in Accident Research

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In recent years, there is growing recognition that common unobserved factors that influence crash frequency by one attribute level are also likely to influence crash frequency by other attribute levels. The most common approach employed to address the potential unobserved heterogeneity in safety literature is the development of multivariate crash frequency models. The current study proposes an alternative joint econometric framework to accommodate for the presence of unobserved heterogeneityreferred to as joint negative binomial-multinomial logit fractional split (NB-MNLFS) model. Furthermore, the study undertakes a first of its kind comparison exercise between the most commonly used multivariate model (multivariate random parameter negative binomial model) and the proposed joint approach by generating an equivalent log-likelihood measure. The empirical analysis is based on the zonal level crash count data for different collision types from the state of Florida for the year 2015. The model results highlight the presence of common unobserved effects affecting the two components of the joint model as well as the presence of parameter heterogeneity. The equivalent log-likelihood and goodness of fit measures clearly highlight the superiority of the proposed joint model over the commonly used multivariate approach. ` iv ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to convey my heartiest gratitude to my honorable supervisor Dr. Naveen Eluru for his excellent supervision and being a constant support in this thesis. I would also like to gratefully acknowledge Signal Four Analytics (S4A) and Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for providing access to Florida crash and geospatial data. I would like to convey my heartiest gratitude to Dr. Shamsunnahar Yasmin who helped me a lot throughout the journey in University of Central Florida and guide me through the thesis.

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Multivariate poisson lognormal modeling of crashes by type and severity on rural two lane highways

Cited by 68 publications

References 38 publications

Association between Driveway Land Use and Safety Performance on Rural Highways

Association between Driveway Land Use and Safety Performance on Rural Highways

Explanatory Analysis of the Safety of Short Passing Zones on Two-Lane Rural Highways

A joint econometric approach for modeling crash counts by collision type

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