Multivariate Flood Frequency Analysis in Large River Basins Considering Tributary Impacts and Flood Types

Fischer, Svenja; Schumann, Andreas

doi:10.1029/2020wr029029

Cited by 18 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 52 publications

(67 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…We define the type-specific threshold for the POT-approach as three times the weighted mean monthly discharge, where the weights are chosen according to the relative frequency of flood type in the respective month. This threshold selection was validated in previous studies to result in samples with behavior in line with extreme value theory (Fischer et al 2019 ; Fischer and Schumann 2021 ). Of course other choices for the threshold are possible (Lang et al 1999 ), e.g.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 77%

Detecting flood-type-specific flood-rich and flood-poor periods in peaks-over-threshold series with application to Bavaria (Germany)

Fischer

Lun

Schumann

et al. 2022

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Previous studies suggest that flood-rich and flood-poor periods are present in many flood peak discharge series around the globe. Understanding the occurrence of these periods and their driving mechanisms is important for reliably estimating future flood probabilities. We propose a method for detecting flood-rich and flood-poor periods in peak-over-threshold series based on scan-statistics and combine it with a flood typology in order to attribute the periods to their flood-generating mechanisms. The method is applied to 164 observed flood series in southern Germany from 1930 to 2018. The results reveal significant flood-rich periods of heavy-rainfall floods, especially in the Danube river basin in the most recent decades. These are consistent with trend analyses from the literature. Additionally, significant flood-poor periods of snowmelt-floods in the immediate past were detected, especially for low-elevation catchments in the alpine foreland and the uplands. The occurrence of flood-rich and flood-poor periods is interpreted in terms of increases in the frequency of heavy rainfall in the alpine foreland and decreases of both soil moisture and snow cover in the midlands.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 77%

Detecting flood-type-specific flood-rich and flood-poor periods in peaks-over-threshold series with application to Bavaria (Germany)

Fischer

Lun

Schumann

et al. 2022

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…These associations may be related to the effects of scale and soil storage capacity ( 22 , 33 , 36 ). For example, with increasing catchment size, the flood generation mechanisms are expected to become more diverse, interactive, and long-lasting, leading to potentially greater heterogeneity in the physical processes underlying floods of different magnitudes ( 37 , 38 ). However, it should be noted that larger catchments tend to smooth the effects of within-basin process heterogeneities on their discharge responses more than smaller ones ( 26 , 34 , 36 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compounding effects in flood drivers challenge estimates of extreme river floods

Jiang,

Tarasova,

et al. 2024

Sci. Adv.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Estimating river flood risks under climate change is challenging, largely due to the interacting and combined influences of various flood-generating drivers. However, a more detailed quantitative analysis of such compounding effects and the implications of their interplay remains underexplored on a large scale. Here, we use explainable machine learning to disentangle compounding effects between drivers and quantify their importance for different flood magnitudes across thousands of catchments worldwide. Our findings demonstrate the ubiquity of compounding effects in many floods. Their importance often increases with flood magnitude, but the strength of this increase varies on the basis of catchment conditions. Traditional flood analysis might underestimate extreme flood hazards in catchments where the contribution of compounding effects strongly varies with flood magnitude. Overall, our study highlights the need to carefully incorporate compounding effects in flood risk assessment to improve estimates of extreme floods.

show abstract

“…Large sets of observational data and/or model simulations are required to assess the flood genesis. Streamflow induced by precipitation and snowmelt and from different sub‐basins can superimpose and cause high water levels (Fischer & Schumann, 2021; Guse et al, 2020; Kleinn et al, 2005; Ma et al, 2021); Disse and Engel (2001) demonstrate this for the Rhine basin. Furthermore, river training measures have the potential to affect flood magnitudes (Blöschl et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rhine flood stories: Spatio‐temporal analysis of historic and projected flood genesis in the Rhine River basin

Rottler

Bronstert

Bürger

et al. 2023

Hydrological Processes

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The genesis of floods in large river basins often is complex. Streamflow originating from precipitation and snowmelt and different tributaries can superimpose and cause high water levels, threatening cities and communities along the riverbanks. For better understanding the mechanisms (origin and composition) of flood events in large and complex basins, we capture and share the story behind major historic and projected streamflow peaks in the Rhine River basin. Our analysis is based on hydrological simulations with the mesoscale Hydrological Model forced with both meteorological observations and an ensemble of climate projections. The spatio-temporal analysis of the flood events includes the assessment and mapping of antecedent liquid precipitation, snow cover changes, generated and routed runoff, areal extents of events, and the above-average runoff from major sub-basins up to 10 days before a streamflow peak. We introduce and assess the analytical setup by presenting the flood genesis of the two well-known Rhine floods that occurred in January 1995 and May 1999. We share our extensive collection of event-based Rhine River flood genesis, which can be used in-and outside the scientific community to explore the complexity and diversity of historic and projected flood genesis in the Rhine basin. An interactive webbased viewer provides easy access to all major historic and projected streamflow peaks at four locations along the Rhine. The comparison of peak flow genesis depending on different warming levels elucidates the role of changes in snow cover and precipitation characteristics in the (pre-)Alps for flood hazards along the entire channel of the Rhine. Furthermore, our results suggest a positive correlation between flood magnitudes and areal extents of an event. Further hydro-climatological research is required to improve the understanding of the climatic impact on the Rhine and beyond.

show abstract

Multivariate Flood Frequency Analysis in Large River Basins Considering Tributary Impacts and Flood Types

Cited by 18 publications

References 52 publications

Detecting flood-type-specific flood-rich and flood-poor periods in peaks-over-threshold series with application to Bavaria (Germany)

Detecting flood-type-specific flood-rich and flood-poor periods in peaks-over-threshold series with application to Bavaria (Germany)

Compounding effects in flood drivers challenge estimates of extreme river floods

Rhine flood stories: Spatio‐temporal analysis of historic and projected flood genesis in the Rhine River basin

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About