Multivariate extreme value modelling of sea conditions around the coast of England

Gouldby, Ben; Wyncoll, David; Panzeri, M.; Franklin, Mark; Hunt, Tim D.; Hames, Dominic; Tozer, N.P.; Hawkes, P.J.; Dornbusch, Uwe; Pullen, Tim

doi:10.1680/jmaen.2016.16

Cited by 38 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The performance of different environmental contour methods has been investigated in several studies, including work by some of the current authors (including Jonathan et al 2014a;Vanem and Bitner-Gregersen 2015;Gouldby et al 2017;Vanem 2017). After consideration of the fundamental mathematical differences between different contour methods, it is unreasonable in general to expect to find any consistent trends in comparisons of contour methods across different applications.…”

Section: Environmental Contoursmentioning

confidence: 99%

On environmental contours for marine and coastal design

et al. 2020

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Environmental contours are used in structural reliability analysis of marine and coastal structures as an approximate means to locate the boundary of the distribution of environmental variables, and hence sets of environmental conditions giving rise to extreme structural loads and responses. Outline guidance concerning the application of environmental contour methods is given in recent design guidelines from many organisations.

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Section: Environmental Contoursmentioning

confidence: 99%

On environmental contours for marine and coastal design

et al. 2020

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“…We obtained HT04 30 model fits in the Laplace space using maximum likelihood, with each marginal as conditioning variable and all other marginals as dependent variables, resulting in a total of 298*297 model fits, where we chose the fitting threshold ζ f = 0.9, which was a trade-off between variance and bias. HT04 was recently applied for fluvial flooding (Keef et al, 2009;Lamb et al, 2010;Wyncoll et al, 2013) and for coastal flooding (Wyncoll and Gouldby, 2015;Gouldby et al, 2017), in which the model fitting procedure is described in more detail.…”

Section: Q−q Plotmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Different methods exist to assign auxiliary values, for different purposes. Gouldby et al (2017) analysed different coastal flood variables with an event-based approach, where they adopted concurrent values at all locations where particular thresholds had not been exceeded (i.e. no local event).…”

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confidence: 99%

Stochastic generation of spatially coherent river discharge peaks for large-scale, event-based flood risk assessment

Diederen¹,

Liu²,

Gouldby³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Flood events cause large damages worldwide (Desai et al., 2015). Moreover, widespread flooding can potentially cause large damage in a short time window. Therefore, large-scale (e.g. pan-European) events and for instance maximum probable damages are of interest, in particular for the (re)insurance industry, because they want to know the chance of their widespread portfolio of assets getting affected by large-scale events (Jongman et al., 2014).Using a pan-European data set of modelled, gridded river discharge data, we tracked discharge waves in all major European 10 river basins. We synthetically generated a large catalogue of synthetic, pan-European events, consisting of spatially coherent discharge peak sets.

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“…To address some of this uncertainty, the use of statistical methods has become both more commonplace and a powerful tool in ocean engineering. Combined with the development in computational power it has allowed for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and numerical analysis to come of age and provide new insights in many aspects of maritime engineering.In the current issue of the journal the paper by Gouldby et al (2017) looks at flood risk analysis and the design of coastal structures, and the necessity to assess the joint probability of occurrence of extreme waves and water levels. Traditionally, methods have involved the application of joint probability contours, which, if incorrectly applied, can lead to the underestimation of flood risk and the under-design of coastal structures.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the current issue of the journal the paper by Gouldby et al (2017) looks at flood risk analysis and the design of coastal structures, and the necessity to assess the joint probability of occurrence of extreme waves and water levels. Traditionally, methods have involved the application of joint probability contours, which, if incorrectly applied, can lead to the underestimation of flood risk and the under-design of coastal structures.…”

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confidence: 99%

Editorial

Harris

2017

Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Maritime En

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As I start my first full year as Chair of the Maritime Engineering journal, the year already seems well established. I have been reflecting on how the journal has changed over the years and how it can still best reflect the interest of the readership and the rapidly changing field of maritime civil engineering and still remain relevant for engineers and scientists working in this field. Therefore, alongside the full paper category the journal panel is introducing a new category of short paper (3-4 pages in length) that will allow authors to bring new ideas, pioneering research, design guidance and best practice to the attention of the readership and broaden the range of topics covered in each issue. The papers will still be peer-reviewed, and with these shorter papers sitting alongside the full papers I hope to enliven the interest and debate within the journal and I encourage you to consider submission of your own contributions to its pages. I believe these are exciting and challenging times in the field of estuarine, coastal and offshore engineering, operating within the context of a changing climate. My passion for this area of work has not waned since I was inspired as a student to enter this field of study as a young maritime civil engineer. The oceans are vital to achieving long-term sustainable development. They form a key part of our future energy requirements through rapidly developing renewable energy schemes. They continue to provide oil and gas as new fields are developed in deeper waters. They are conduits for telecommunications and power and provide the global highway for transporting goods between countries. However, with high urbanisation the sea has the potential to impact lives through coastal erosion and coastal flooding, and meeting these challenges in a sustainable manner is essential for longer-term development.The field of ocean engineering, like many engineering subjects, is multidisciplinary, and includes naval architecture. In fact, naval architects would claim to be the second oldest profession, dating from when the first humans used logs as boats.At times it is difficult to separate the science from the engineering in this field as both are aiming to achieve a clearer understanding of the oceans and how they interact with the environment as a whole, to engineer better ports, more sustainable coastal defences, better use of natural resources, recreational facilities and so on. However, whether as an engineer or scientist it is essential to inspire the future generation of talented and innovative young engineers and scientists to engage in this important engineering discipline.Whilst research in the field of ocean engineering has advanced rapidly since the 1940s there is still a large degree of experiential design resulting in varying degrees of uncertainty in the solutions put forward. Some of this uncertainty is in response to the non-linear nature of the challenges being addressed; for example, scour development in cohesive and non-uniform soils is still an area of great uncertainty ...

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Multivariate extreme value modelling of sea conditions around the coast of England

Cited by 38 publications

References 27 publications

On environmental contours for marine and coastal design

On environmental contours for marine and coastal design

Stochastic generation of spatially coherent river discharge peaks for large-scale, event-based flood risk assessment

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