Multivariable Analysis of Transport Network Seismic Performance: Mexico City

Abstract

In densely populated urban areas, predicting the post-earthquake performance of a transport network is a particularly challenging task that requires the integration of modeled structural seismic response, damage scenarios, and resulting traffic behavior. Previous approaches assessing the vulnerability and performance of networks after earthquakes have not succeeded in capturing and estimating the interdependencies between seismic risk parameters and key traffic behavior variables. This paper presents a methodology, based on data analysis and optimization, where the dynamic traffic modeling and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment are coupled, to link and characterize key network performance variables after extreme earthquakes and establish a multivariable seismic performance measure. The methodology is used to study the transport network in the southern part of Mexico City for a set of scenarios. The seismic environment is established through uniform hazard spectra derived for firm soil. Damage to structures is estimated considering site response and using fragility functions. Dynamic traffic modeling is developed to simulate damage-induced road closures and resulting in traffic variations. Post-earthquake network performance is evaluated through data envelopment analyses, obtaining sets of seismic performance boundaries, and seismic performance maps. The methodology offers a quantitative tool with applications in the planning of urban areas that are sustainable and seismic resilient.

Understanding state-of-the-art situation of transport planning strategies in earthquake-prone areas by using AI-supported literature review methodology

“…The vulnerability or exposure state of a transport system can be determined by estimating physical losses or significant degradation of system components [ 11 , 41 ]. Seismic vulnerability directly impacts consequences and recovery time, influenced by the design and construction quality of transport infrastructure [ 10 , [16] , [17] , [18] , [19] , [20] , 44 , 45 ]. Identifying critical elements within the system and developing strategies to mitigate seismic risk is crucial for ensuring system resilience in the face of seismic hazards.…”

“…The primary goal is to pinpoint critical elements for reinforcement strategies in the face of seismic uncertainties. For instance, Wang et al [ 10 ] applied fragility functions (based on empirical data and HAZUS) and Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) to assess seismic risk in Tangshan's roadway system. Through simulating the road network under various ground-motion intensities, they generated damage state maps, allowing for a quantitative analysis of potential damage.…”

“…They evaluated road network disruption and its impact on mobility demand, exploring various traffic demand models to assess system resilience and accessibility to essential services during emergency response. One related work [ 10 ] proposed an integrated seismic risk and resilience assessment methodology for urban transport systems in the southwest district of Mexico City, taking travel demand into account. The study considered diverse elements such as roads, bridges, tunnels, metro stations, and railway systems, incorporating factors like structural characteristics, soil properties, and mobility patterns.…”

“…Inadequate seismic transport planning has resulted in higher mortality rates after earthquakes, as observed in instances where hospitals faced accessibility issues [ 7 ]. For example, severe Wenchuan earthquake in some cities of China led to delayed emergency responses (mobility of rescue workers, medicines and supplies) and further losses, underscoring the need for better evaluation and improvement of transport strategies [ 10 ]. Also, the 2003 earthquake in Bam resulted in significant traffic congestion, leading to substantial delays in rescue and relief operations, emphasizing the urgent requirement for demand management strategies in earthquake-prone areas [ 8 ].…”