Multitask learning to predict successful weaning in critically ill ventilated patients: A retrospective analysis of the MIMIC-IV database

Abstract

Objective Weaning is an essential issue in critical care. This study explores the efficacy of multitask learning models in predicting successful weaning in critically ill ventilated patients using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) IV database. Methods We employed a multitask learning framework with a shared bottom network to facilitate common knowledge extraction across all tasks. We used the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) plot and partial dependence plot (PDP) for model explainability. Furthermore, we conducted an error analysis to assess the strength and limitation of the model. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration plot and decision curve analysis were used to determine the performance of the model. Results A total of 7758 critically ill patients were included in the analyses, and 78.5% of them were successfully weaned. Multitask learning combined with spontaneous breath trial achieved a higher performance to predict successful weaning compared with multitask learning combined with shock and mortality (area under receiver operating characteristic curve, AUROC, 0.820 ± 0.002 vs 0.817 ± 0.001, p < 0.001). We assessed the performance of the model using calibration and decision curve analyses and further interpreted the model through SHAP and PDP plots. The error analysis identified a relatively high error rate among those with low disease severities, including low mean airway pressure and high enteral feeding. Conclusion We demonstrated that multitask machine learning increased predictive accuracy for successful weaning through combining tasks with a high inter-task relationship. The model explainability and error analysis should enhance trust in the model.