The 2020 environmental catastrophe in Pantanal has highlighted the fragility of environmental policies and practices for managing and fighting fires in this biome. Therefore, it is essential to know the causes and circumstances that potentiate these fires. This study aimed to: (I) assess the relationship between fire foci and carbon absorption (GPP), precipitation, and carbon dioxide (CO2) flux; (ii) analyze vegetation recovery using the differenced normalized burn ratio (ΔNBR) in Brazilian Pantanal between 2001 and 2022; and (iii) identify priority areas, where the highest intensities of fire foci have occurred, in order to guide public policies in Brazil to maintain local conservation. To this purpose, fire foci were detected using data from the MODIS MOD14/MYD14 algorithm, annual precipitation with CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data), and CO2 flux using the MODIS/MODO9A1 product, and Gross Primary Production (GPP) with the MODIS/MOD17A2 product. The severity of the burned area was also assessed using the ΔNBR index and the risk areas were determined using the averages of these images. During the time series studied, a total of 300,127 fire foci were detected throughout the Pantanal, where 2020 had the highest number of foci and the lowest accumulated precipitation. The years with the highest precipitation were 2014 and 2018. The year 2018 was also the second year with the highest GPP value. The Pettit test showed a trend for 2008 and 2011 as the points of change in the CO2 flux and GPP variables. Principal component analysis clustered fire foci and precipitation on opposite sides, as well as GPP and CO2 flux, while ΔNBR clustered HS, MHS and MLS classes with the years 2020, 2019, 2002 and 2021. There was a high negative correlation between fire foci × rainfall and GPP × CO2 flux. The years with the largest areas of High severity (HS), Moderate-high severity (MHS) and Moderate-low severity (MLS) classes were 2020 and 2019, respectively. The most vulnerable areas for severe fires were the municipalities of Cáceres, Poconé, and Corumbá. The major fire catastrophe in 2020 is correlated with the low precipitation in 2019, the high precipitation in 2018, and the increased GPP, as well government policies unfavorable to the environment.
