Multiple order model migration and optimal model selection for online glucose prediction in Type 1 diabetes

Abstract

To address the problem of insufficient available modeling data for glucose prediction, as well as modeling burden, a model migration method was developed in a previous work to quickly transfer an old model to a new subject using a simple parameter adjustment. However, this method, which is referred to as first‐order model migration (FOMM), only considers a single order for each exogenous input, and may not produce an optimal model structure for accurate prediction. To overcome this problem, a multiple order model migration (MOMM) algorithm is proposed in this study. For different numbers of modeling samples, including glucose and two exogenous inputs (meal and insulin), the optimal modeling method may be different, and therefore, must be properly determined for each modeling scenario. First, the optimal model order is determined for each input and a multiple order prediction model is used. Then, a MOMM algorithm is developed based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) to simultaneously revise multiple parameters. The multiple order parameters of each input in the old model are quickly customized so that the revised model can be used for new subjects with desirable prediction accuracy. In particular, the influence of the number of modeling samples is analysed to check the applicability of different methods; this analysis determines the appropriate selection guidelines for the optimal model in response to different data sizes. The proposed method was evaluated using thirty in silico subjects and clinical data from seven individuals with Type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM). Overall, the MOMM algorithm presented superior results when the time period for collecting the samples was larger than 10 h (50 samples). In particular, the size of the modeling samples was separated into three different regions by evaluating the glucose prediction performance and the comparison between different algorithms for both in silico and clinical subjects. In Region I, the FOMM method achieves the best performance. In Region II, the MOMM method should be used and the prediction accuracy is superior in Region II in general. With enough samples (Region III), the subject‐dependent model (SM) algorithm can be chosen. The MOMM algorithm is demonstrated to be able to transfer models for new subjects with improved model structure. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 64: 822–834, 2018

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