Multiple Land-Use Simulations and Driving Factor Analysis by Integrating a Deep Cascade Forest Model and Cellular Automata: A Case Study in the Pearl River Delta, China

Abstract

Cellular automata (CA) models have been extensively employed to predict and understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use. Driving factors play a significant role in shaping and driving land-use changes. Mining land-use transition rules from driving factors and quantifying the contribution of driving factors to land-use dynamics are fundamental aspects of CA simulation. However, existing CA models have limitations in obtaining accurate transition rules and reliable interpretations simultaneously for multiple land-use simulations. In this study, we constructed a CA model based on a tree-based deep learning algorithm, deep cascade forest (DCF), to improve multiple land-use simulations and driving factors analysis. The DCF algorithm was utilized to mine accurate multiple land-use transition rules without overfitting to improve CA simulation accuracy. Additionally, a novel ensemble mean decrease of impurity (MDI) factor importance analysis method (DCF-MDI), which leverages the cascade structure of the DCF model, was proposed to qualify the contribution of each driving factor to land-use dynamics stably and efficiently. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed DCF-CA, we applied the model to simulate land-use distributions and explore the driving mechanisms of land-use dynamics in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), China, from 2000 to 2010. Compared to existing models, the proposed DCF-CA model exhibits the highest accuracy (FoM = 23.79%, PA = 39.77%, UA = 36.35%, OA = 91.50%), which demonstrates its superiority in mining accurate transition rules for capturing multiple land-use dynamics. Factor importance analysis reveals that the proposed DCF-MDI method yields more stable ranking orders and lower standard deviation of contribution weights (<0.10%) compared to the traditional method, indicating its robustness to random disturbances and effectiveness in elucidating the driving mechanisms of land-use dynamics. The DCF-CA model proposed in this study, demonstrating high simulation accuracy and reliable interpretability simultaneously, can provide substantial support for sustainable land use management.