Multiple drought indices for agricultural drought risk assessment on the Canadian prairies

Sun, Liu; Mitchell, Scott; Davidson, Andrew

doi:10.1002/joc.2385

Cited by 65 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 39 publications

(57 reference statements)

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“…However, a single drought index is often inadequate for completely representing complex drought phenomenon (Sun et al 2011). Some studies suggest applying multiple drought indices or integration of drought indices (Steinemann and Cavalcanti 2006;Sun et al 2011). Because there is no complete drought estimation technique, researchers should employ appropriate drought indices that can represent regional hydro-climatic regimes as well as socioeconomic conditions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To date, the majority of drought indices have been evaluated for various watersheds (e.g., Shukla and Wood 2008;Vidal et al 2010;Balling and Goodrich 2010). However, a single drought index is often inadequate for completely representing complex drought phenomenon (Sun et al 2011). Some studies suggest applying multiple drought indices or integration of drought indices (Steinemann and Cavalcanti 2006;Sun et al 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change impacts on spatial patterns in drought risk in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA

Jung

Chang

2011

Theor Appl Climatol

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Climate change is likely to lead more frequent droughts in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) of America. Rising air temperature will reduce winter snowfall and increase earlier snowmelt, subsequently reducing summer flows. Longer crop-growing season caused by higher temperatures will lead to increases in evapotranspiration and irrigation water demand, which could exacerbate drought damage. However, the impacts of climate change on drought risk will vary over space and time. Thus, spatially explicit drought assessment can help water resource managers and planners to better cope with risk. This study seeks to identify possible drought-vulnerable regions in the Willamette River Basin of the PNW. In order to estimate drought risk in a spatially explicit way, relative Standardized Precipitation Index (rSPI) and relative Standardized Runoff Index (rSRI) were employed. Statistically downscaled climate simulations forcing two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, A1B and B1, were used to investigate the possible changes in drought frequency with 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month time scales. The results of rSPI and rSRI showed an increase in the short-term frequency of drought due to decreases in summer precipitation and snowmelt. However, long-term drought showed no change or a slight decreasing pattern due to increases in winter precipitation and runoff. According to the local index of spatial autocorrelation analysis, the Willamette Valley region was more vulnerable (hot spot) to drought risk than the mountainous regions of the Western Cascades and the High Cascades (cold spot). Although the hydrology of the Western Cascades and the High Cascades will be affected by climate change, these regions will remain relatively water-rich. This suggests that improving the water transfer system could be a reasonable climate adaptation option. Additionally, these results showed that the spatial patterns of drought risk change were affected by drought indices, such that appropriate drought index selection will be important in future studies of climate impacts on spatial drought risk.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on spatial patterns in drought risk in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA

Jung

Chang

2011

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…Reported yield data were linearly detrended for each county to account for the effects of hybrid and technological improvements (Wu et al 2004, Mavromatis 2007, Sun et al 2012, Potopová et al 2015. Annual yield residuals were compared to the countyaverage July 1-month SPEI for each year because drought during the critical pollination period have been shown to exert the largest impact on yield both in field studies (Hiler and Clark 1971, Çakir 2004, Boyer and Westgate 2004, Zipper and Loheide 2014, Zipper et al 2015 and nationwide .…”

Section: Agricultural Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Socio-environmental drought response in a mixed urban-agricultural setting: synthesizing biophysical and governance responses in the Platte River Watershed, Nebraska, USA

Zipper¹,

Smith²,

Breyer³

et al. 2017

E&S

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“…The effect of drought on wheat production is also being accelerated by climate change on the Henan Plain. There-fore, a risk assessment of agricultural drought is essential to improve drought preparedness and reduce the effects of drought on agriculture (Sun 2009). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment of agricultural drought using the CERES-Wheat model: a case study of Henan Plain, China

Zhao¹,

Gao²,

Yan³

et al. 2011

Clim. Res.

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Droughts caused by a lack of precipitation are one of the major factors limiting agricultural crop production. It is thus important to assess the risk of such droughts in order to reduce their effect on agriculture. In the present study, the drought risk for crop production was assessed through an integrated approach that analyzed the relationship between crop yield and drought on the Henan Plain, China. We used the calibrated CERES-Wheat model to simulate 2 levels of wheat yield, the yield potential and the water-limited yield potential, at 66 weather stations. The yield gap between the yield potential and the water-limited yield potential was used as an indicator of the effects of a precipitation deficit on crop production under rain-fed conditions. A strong linear relationship between the yield gap and the amount of precipitation in the growing season was observed for each station during the period 1962−2009. A uniform criterion for drought severity thresholds for the entire Henan Plain was constructed based on the yield gap. For each station, the growing-season precipitation thresholds associated with different drought severities were then calculated based on the linear relationship between the yield gap and the amount of precipitation in the growing season. Drought frequencies derived from changes in the amount of precipitation during the growing season were also examined for all stations and spatially interpolated over the plain. The results showed diverse spatial patterns of frequency with respect to different drought types. Light droughts often occurred in the southern region, and moderate droughts occurred more frequently in the western and eastern regions. Severe drought displayed a generally decreasing trend from north to south.

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Multiple drought indices for agricultural drought risk assessment on the Canadian prairies

Cited by 65 publications

References 39 publications

Climate change impacts on spatial patterns in drought risk in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA

Climate change impacts on spatial patterns in drought risk in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA

Socio-environmental drought response in a mixed urban-agricultural setting: synthesizing biophysical and governance responses in the Platte River Watershed, Nebraska, USA

Risk assessment of agricultural drought using the CERES-Wheat model: a case study of Henan Plain, China

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