Multiple drivers of the COVID-19 spread: The roles of climate, international mobility, and region-specific conditions

Kubota, Yasuhiro; Shiono, Takayuki; Kusumoto, Buntarou; Fujinuma, Junichi

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0239385

Cited by 46 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Moreover, there has been substantial public support despite these strict public health and social measures [ 23 ]. Other potential reasons for the less severe COVID-19 surge in Africa are likely due to the generally younger age demographics in Africa [ 9 ], and the relatively warmer climate [ 21 , 23 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multivariate visualization of the global COVID-19 pandemic: A comparison of 161 countries

et al. 2021

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Background The aim of the study was to visualize the global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic over the first 90 days, through the principal component analysis approach of dimensionality reduction. Methods This study used data from the Global COVID-19 Index provided by PEMANDU Associates. The sample, representing 161 countries, comprised the number of confirmed cases, deaths, stringency indices, population density and GNI per capita (USD). Correlation matrices were computed to reveal the association between the variables at three time points: day-30, day-60 and day-90. Three separate principal component analyses were computed for similar time points, and several standardized plots were produced. Results Confirmed cases and deaths due to COVID-19 showed positive but weak correlation with stringency and GNI per capita. Through principal component analysis, the first two principal components captured close to 70% of the variance of the data. The first component can be viewed as the severity of the COVID-19 surge in countries, whereas the second component largely corresponded to population density, followed by GNI per capita of countries. Multivariate visualization of the two dominating principal components provided a standardized comparison of the situation in the161 countries, performed on day-30, day-60 and day-90 since the first confirmed cases in countries worldwide. Conclusion Visualization of the global spread of COVID-19 showed the unequal severity of the pandemic across continents and over time. Distinct patterns in clusters of countries, which separated many European countries from those in Africa, suggested a contrast in terms of stringency measures and wealth of a country. The African continent appeared to fare better in terms of the COVID-19 pandemic and the burden of mortality in the first 90 days. A noticeable worsening trend was observed in several countries in the same relative time frame of the disease’s first 90 days, especially in the United States of America.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multivariate visualization of the global COVID-19 pandemic: A comparison of 161 countries

et al. 2021

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“…COVID19 virus has the potential to harm us as we are constantly exposed to the virus while visiting public places like restaurants, retail stores, businesses, places of worship, public parks and gardens, and places of work. Exposure to the virus can trigger our immune system to react to the virus as it has high negative outcomes towards our body which has led to intense research and human clinical studies about effective COVID19 vaccination [41][42].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the study, respondents were shown how previous participants have answered survey questions in their country regarding behavioral perception about COVID19 pandemic, vaccination drive, social distancing, preventive measures like wearing masks, hand washing, using sanitizers, etc [42]. The information to the respondents was provided in a randomized way during the survey which showed the descriptive norms of the respondents about acceptance of the vaccination.…”

Section: Figure 2: Country Wise Vaccination Acceptance Behavioral Patternmentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of Information Technology in COVID19 Vaccination Drive: An Analysis of the COVID-19 Global Beliefs, Behaviors, and Norms Survey

Talukdar¹,

Stojkovski²,

Suarez³

2021

Preprint

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With the onset of the COVID19 pandemic, information technology has played a critical role in healthcare. A broad spectrum of information technology tools and applications played an essential role to create awareness of the COVID19 vaccination drive and its health benefits. We use the COVID-19 Global Beliefs, Behaviors, and Norms Survey for analysis of prevalence and factors associated with vaccination drives among men and women aged 20-80 years in 60 countries worldwide. Our analysis of the global survey offers a unique perspective about the role of information technology associated with vaccination drives involving social norms and human behavior among 437,236 respondents. The international survey was organized using a pre-registered randomized experiment demonstrating the role of technology in reaching out to people based in diverse communities and evaluating their beliefs, behavior, and social norms. The study shows that vaccine acceptance can vary due to descriptive norms. Our analysis shows 65.06% of people all over the globe are willing to get vaccinated and a large proportion of the population thinks that the COVID19 pandemic is a viable threat to the community and preventive measures need to be taken including vaccination drives.

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“…If more up to date age stratified IFR estimates become available, the analysis can be updated. The spread of disease through a population may also depend on international mobility, climate or regional susceptibility [25]. Finally, the association between the IFR clusters and the change in death rate trajectories between time points may be biased by socioeconomic factors or missing death rate trajectories in countries excluded due to low numbers of reported deaths.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Clustering of age standardised COVID-19 infection fatality ratios and death trajectories

Kelly

Humphrey²,

Miller

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background An accurate measure of the impact of COVID-19 is the infection fatality ratio, or the proportion of deaths among those infected, which does not depend on variable testing rates between nations. The risk of mortality from COVID-19 depends strongly on age and current estimates of the infection fatality ratio do not account for differences in national age profiles. Comparisons of cumulative death trajectories allow the effect and timing of public health interventions to be assessed. Our purpose is to (1) determine whether countries are clustered according to infection fatality ratios and (2) compare interventions to slow the spread of the disease by clustering death trajectories. Methods National age standardised infection fatality ratios were derived from age stratified estimates from China and population estimates from the World Health Organisation. The IFRs were clustered into groups using Gaussian mixture models. Trajectory analysis clustered cumulative death rates in two time windows, 50 and 100 days after the first reported death. Findings Infection fatality ratios from 201 nations were clustered into three groups: young, medium and older, with corresponding means (SD) of 0.20% (0.03%), 0.38% (0.11%) and 0.93% (0.21%). At 50 and 100 days after the first reported death, there were two clusters of cumulative death trajectories from 113 nations with at least 25 deaths reported at 100 days. The first group had slowly increasing or stable cumulative death rates, while the second group had accelerating rates at the end of the time window. Fifty-two nations changed group membership between the time windows. Conclusion A cluster of younger nations have a lower estimated infection fatality ratio than older nations. The effect and timing of public health interventions in preventing the spread of the disease can be tracked by clustering death rate trajectories into stable or accelerating and comparing changes over time.

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Multiple drivers of the COVID-19 spread: The roles of climate, international mobility, and region-specific conditions

Cited by 46 publications

References 21 publications

Multivariate visualization of the global COVID-19 pandemic: A comparison of 161 countries

Multivariate visualization of the global COVID-19 pandemic: A comparison of 161 countries

Role of Information Technology in COVID19 Vaccination Drive: An Analysis of the COVID-19 Global Beliefs, Behaviors, and Norms Survey

Clustering of age standardised COVID-19 infection fatality ratios and death trajectories

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